Crystal Palace v 1899 Hoffenheim

20th1–19th

17:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Crystal Palace		1899 Hoffenheim
13	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	5
5	Corners	5
13	Fouls	15
5	Yellow cards	3
1	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
517	Passes	429
54%	Possession %	46%
1.10	xG	1.27

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 64%
Over 3.5: 42%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: 1899 Hoffenheim 39%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.64 – 1.68

Advised bets

VoidMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

1899 Hoffenheim 0

2.75Bet365 · fair 2.46 · qualifies at 2.54+ · 1.66u

Why this price?

Back 1899 Hoffenheim 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.75 with Bet365 — 1899 Hoffenheim to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 51% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 34%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.46. The offered 2.75 implies only 36%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.66 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Crystal Palace 1.64, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.68.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.1%	6.62	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-1.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.5%	1.55	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+0.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	35.5%	2.81	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+0.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	42.4%	2.36	2.35 Betano	42.6%	-0.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	57.6%	1.74	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+0.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	66.1%	1.51	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-0.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	33.9%	2.95	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-0.8
Match result	Crystal Palace	37.3%	2.68	1.91 Betano	52.4%	-15.1
Match result	Draw	23.9%	4.18	4.20 Betano	23.8%	+0.1
Match result	1899 Hoffenheim	38.8%	2.58	3.90 Betano	25.6%	+13.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.9%	1.18	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	-0.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Crystal Palace v 1899 Hoffenheim: too close to call

Our model makes Crystal Palace 37% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 24% and 1899 Hoffenheim at 39%. The goal projection is 1.64 for Crystal Palace against 1.68 for 1899 Hoffenheim — almost nothing to 1899 Hoffenheim on expected output. A combined 3.32 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Crystal Palace and 1899 Hoffenheim
Crystal Palace		1899 Hoffenheim
10	Played	9
2-1-7	W-D-L	4-0-5
0.70	Pts / game	1.33
1.00	Goals for / game	1.78
2.40	Goals against / game	1.89
60%	Over 2.5	89%
50%	BTTS	78%
10%	Clean sheets	11%
50%	Failed to score	11%
1-0-4	Home record	3-0-2
1-1-3	Away record	1-0-3
L4	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Crystal Palace · 1899 Hoffenheim

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.2	Shots	17.1
4.0	Shots on target	5.0
3.9	Corners	6.2
2.62	Cards	2.11
11.4	Fouls	14.0
45	Possession %	53
1.32	xG	1.75
9 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.6	Shots	14.1
5.2	Shots on target	3.9
6.8	Corners	5.1
2.37	Cards	2.22
11.0	Fouls	9.8
55	Possession %	47
1.97	xG	1.46
9 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Crystal Palace	Metric	1899 Hoffenheim
1.00	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
2.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
0.99	Expected goals (xG)	1.90 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	5.80 (better)
9.20	Total shots	16.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.60	Corners	7.80 (better)
42.6	Possession %	49.2 (better)
378	Passes	457 (better)
	Tackles
11.80 (better)	Fouls	16.40
2.20 (better)	Offsides	2.50
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	3.80
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Crystal Palace wins: 0
Draws: 1
1899 Hoffenheim wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Crystal Palace v 1899 Hoffenheim1–12026-11-05

UEFA Europa League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12	Benfica won 4 of the last 4
2	Bournemouth	4	4	0	0	+9	12	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 4
3	Ferencvarosi TC	4	4	0	0	+8	12	Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of the last 4
4	Union St. Gilloise	4	3	1	0	+8	10	Union St. Gilloise won 3 of the last 4
5	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+7	10	Juventus won 3 of the last 4
6	Olympiakos Piraeus	4	3	1	0	+3	10	Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of the last 4
7	Bayer Leverkusen	4	3	0	1	+7	9	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 4
8	Beşiktaş	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 4
9	Dinamo Zagreb	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of the last 4
10	Levski Sofia	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Levski Sofia won 2 of the last 4
11	Sunderland	4	2	1	1	0	7	Sunderland won 2 of the last 4
12	NEC Nijmegen	4	2	1	1	-1	7	NEC Nijmegen won 2 of the last 4
13	Lyon	4	2	1	1	-1	7	Lyon won 2 of the last 4
14	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	0	2	+3	6	AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 4
15	Anderlecht	4	2	0	2	+3	6	Anderlecht won 2 of the last 4
16	OFI	4	2	0	2	+1	6	OFI won 2 of the last 4
17	Rennes	4	1	3	0	+1	6	Rennes won 1 of the last 4
18	Omonia Nicosia	4	2	0	2	-1	6	Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 4
19	Torreense	4	2	0	2	-2	6	Torreense won 2 of the last 4
20	Real Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+5	5	Real Sociedad won 1 of the last 4
21	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+3	5	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 4
22	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	0	4	1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the last 4
23	Sparta Praha	4	1	1	2	0	4	Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 4
24	Sturm Graz	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Sturm Graz won 1 of the last 4
25	Celje	4	1	1	2	-4	4	Celje won 1 of the last 4
26	Red Bull Salzburg	4	1	1	2	-5	4	Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 4
27	Celta Vigo	4	1	0	3	-2	3	Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 4
28	AC Milan	4	1	0	3	-3	3	AC Milan won 1 of the last 4
29	Jagiellonia	4	1	0	3	-3	3	Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 4
30	Plzen	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Plzen won 1 of the last 4
31	Marseille	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Marseille won 1 of the last 4
32	Celtic	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Celtic won 1 of the last 4
33	Hapoel Beer Sheva	4	0	1	3	-7	1	Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 4
34	Lillestrom	4	0	1	3	-8	1	Lillestrom won 0 of the last 4
35	Lech Poznan	4	0	1	3	-10	1	Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 4
36	Ararat-Armenia	4	0	0	4	-10	0	Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 4