Anderlecht v 
Red Bull Salzburg
Match statistics
| Anderlecht | Red Bull Salzburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 410 | Passes | 513 |
| 44% | Possession % | 56% |
| 2.62 | xG | 0.58 |
- Over 1.5
- 78%
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- Over 3.5
- 32%
- Both score
- 58%
- Model pick
- Red Bull Salzburg 40%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.36 – 1.50
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Anderlecht -0.75
Why this price?
Back Anderlecht -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.15 with Bet365 — Anderlecht must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 27% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 68%; we judge it at 52%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.93. The offered 2.15 implies only 47%, so the price is 11.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Anderlecht 1.36, Red Bull Salzburg 1.50.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Anderlecht | 33.7% | 2.96 | 2.07 Dafabet | 48.3% | -14.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.1% | 3.83 | 3.90 BetVictor | 25.6% | +0.4 |
| Match result | Red Bull Salzburg | 40.2% | 2.49 | 3.75 Betfair | 26.7% | +13.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 78.4% | 1.27 | 1.17 Betano | 85.5% | -7.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 21.6% | 4.64 | 6.00 Betfair | 16.7% | +4.9 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | -7.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 45.6% | 2.19 | 2.80 Betfair | 35.7% | +9.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 32.1% | 3.12 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | -7.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | +8.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 58.3% | 1.72 | 1.44 William Hill | 69.4% | -11.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 41.7% | 2.40 | 3.00 Betfair | 33.3% | +8.4 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Anderlecht v Red Bull Salzburg: too close to call
Our model makes Anderlecht 34% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Red Bull Salzburg at 40%. The goal projection is 1.36 for Anderlecht against 1.50 for Red Bull Salzburg — a slight edge to Red Bull Salzburg on expected output. A combined 2.86 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-1 8%
- 2-1 8%
- 1-0 7%
This season
| Anderlecht | Red Bull Salzburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 12 |
| 6-2-3 | W-D-L | 9-3-0 |
| 1.82 | Pts / game | 2.50 |
| 1.27 | Goals for / game | 2.75 |
| 1.09 | Goals against / game | 0.75 |
| 55% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 36% | BTTS | 58% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 42% |
| 36% | Failed to score | 8% |
| 4-1-0 | Home record | 6-0-0 |
| 2-1-3 | Away record | 3-3-0 |
| D1 | Streak | W4 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Anderlecht · Red Bull Salzburg
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.7 | Shots | 15.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.9 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 3.7 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 3.00 | Cards | 1.67 |
| 14.1 | Fouls | 12.4 |
| 54 | Possession % | 57 |
| 1.50 | xG | 1.90 |
| 7 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 12.0 | Shots | 13.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 3.6 |
| 2.29 | Cards | 2.11 |
| 14.4 | Fouls | 12.6 |
| 46 | Possession % | 43 |
| 1.13 | xG | 1.55 |
| 7 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Anderlecht | Metric | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 2.20 (better) |
| 1.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 1.18 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.96 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.25 (better) | Shots on target | 5.25 |
| 13.75 | Total shots | 14.75 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.00 (better) | Corners | 3.25 |
| 60.8 (better) | Possession % | 54.8 |
| 586 (better) | Passes | 528 |
| Tackles | ||
| 16.00 | Fouls | 11.50 (better) |
| 1.67 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.75 | Yellow cards | 1.25 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Anderlecht wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Red Bull Salzburg wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Anderlecht v Red Bull Salzburg2–02026-11-05
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 | Benfica won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 | Bournemouth won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 12 | Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 10 | Union St. Gilloise won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 | Juventus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +7 | 9 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Levski Sofia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Sunderland won 2 of the last 4 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | NEC Nijmegen won 2 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | Lyon won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | Anderlecht won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | OFI won 2 of the last 4 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 | Rennes won 1 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 | Torreense won 2 of the last 4 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 5 | Real Sociedad won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 5 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | Sturm Graz won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 | Celje won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 | Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 4 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | AC Milan won 1 of the last 4 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 4 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Plzen won 1 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Marseille won 1 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Celtic won 1 of the last 4 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 4 |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 | Lillestrom won 0 of the last 4 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 | Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 4 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 | Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 4 |