Lillestrom v Plzen

4th0–18th

17:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lillestrom		Plzen
15	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	11
3	Corners	6
7	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
643	Passes	353
64%	Possession %	36%
0.67	xG	2.10

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Plzen 41%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.58

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Lillestrom -0.5

2.70Betano · fair 2.42 · qualifies at 2.49+ · 1.73u

Why this price?

Back Lillestrom -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.70 with Betano — Lillestrom must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 46%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.42. The offered 2.70 implies only 37%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.73 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Lillestrom 1.42, Plzen 1.58.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Lillestrom	33.9%	2.95	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	+1.7
Match result	Draw	25.4%	3.94	4.00 Betano	25.0%	+0.4
Match result	Plzen	40.7%	2.46	2.35 Betano	42.6%	-1.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.6%	1.24	1.19 Betano	84.0%	-3.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.4%	5.15	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-0.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.6%	1.74	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-4.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.4%	2.36	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	+2.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.2%	2.84	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-4.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.8%	1.54	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+3.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.7%	1.65	1.50 William Hill	66.7%	-6.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.3%	2.54	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+0.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Plzen favoured against Lillestrom

Our model makes Lillestrom 34% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Plzen at 41%. The goal projection is 1.42 for Lillestrom against 1.58 for Plzen — a slight edge to Plzen on expected output. A combined 3.00 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 7%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Lillestrom and Plzen
Lillestrom		Plzen
26	Played	14
14-3-9	W-D-L	5-5-4
1.73	Pts / game	1.43
1.50	Goals for / game	2.07
1.35	Goals against / game	1.57
54%	Over 2.5	71%
46%	BTTS	71%
31%	Clean sheets	29%
27%	Failed to score	7%
7-1-5	Home record	2-3-3
7-2-4	Away record	3-2-1
W4	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lillestrom · Plzen

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.2	Shots	16.3
4.4	Shots on target	5.8
4.9	Corners	5.0
1.44	Cards	2.22
9.6	Fouls	10.0
48	Possession %	46
1.63	xG	1.95
9 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.8	Shots	15.0
7.2	Shots on target	4.2
5.3	Corners	6.6
1.90	Cards	2.33
11.1	Fouls	11.8
52	Possession %	54
1.83	xG	1.51
9 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lillestrom	Metric	Plzen
1.60	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.80 (better)
1.55	Expected goals (xG)	1.72 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.00
11.50	Total shots	18.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.50	Corners	3.75 (better)
40.8	Possession %	52.8 (better)
385	Passes	405 (better)
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	10.50
2.25	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lillestrom wins: 0
Draws: 0
Plzen wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Lillestrom v Plzen0–12026-11-05

UEFA Europa League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12	Benfica won 4 of the last 4
2	Bournemouth	4	4	0	0	+9	12	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 4
3	Ferencvarosi TC	4	4	0	0	+8	12	Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of the last 4
4	Union St. Gilloise	4	3	1	0	+8	10	Union St. Gilloise won 3 of the last 4
5	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+7	10	Juventus won 3 of the last 4
6	Olympiakos Piraeus	4	3	1	0	+3	10	Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of the last 4
7	Bayer Leverkusen	4	3	0	1	+7	9	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 4
8	Beşiktaş	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 4
9	Dinamo Zagreb	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of the last 4
10	Levski Sofia	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Levski Sofia won 2 of the last 4
11	Sunderland	4	2	1	1	0	7	Sunderland won 2 of the last 4
12	NEC Nijmegen	4	2	1	1	-1	7	NEC Nijmegen won 2 of the last 4
13	Lyon	4	2	1	1	-1	7	Lyon won 2 of the last 4
14	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	0	2	+3	6	AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 4
15	Anderlecht	4	2	0	2	+3	6	Anderlecht won 2 of the last 4
16	OFI	4	2	0	2	+1	6	OFI won 2 of the last 4
17	Rennes	4	1	3	0	+1	6	Rennes won 1 of the last 4
18	Omonia Nicosia	4	2	0	2	-1	6	Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 4
19	Torreense	4	2	0	2	-2	6	Torreense won 2 of the last 4
20	Real Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+5	5	Real Sociedad won 1 of the last 4
21	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+3	5	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 4
22	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	0	4	1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the last 4
23	Sparta Praha	4	1	1	2	0	4	Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 4
24	Sturm Graz	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Sturm Graz won 1 of the last 4
25	Celje	4	1	1	2	-4	4	Celje won 1 of the last 4
26	Red Bull Salzburg	4	1	1	2	-5	4	Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 4
27	Celta Vigo	4	1	0	3	-2	3	Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 4
28	AC Milan	4	1	0	3	-3	3	AC Milan won 1 of the last 4
29	Jagiellonia	4	1	0	3	-3	3	Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 4
30	Plzen	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Plzen won 1 of the last 4
31	Marseille	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Marseille won 1 of the last 4
32	Celtic	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Celtic won 1 of the last 4
33	Hapoel Beer Sheva	4	0	1	3	-7	1	Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 4
34	Lillestrom	4	0	1	3	-8	1	Lillestrom won 0 of the last 4
35	Lech Poznan	4	0	1	3	-10	1	Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 4
36	Ararat-Armenia	4	0	0	4	-10	0	Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 4