Hapoel Beer Sheva v OFI

33rd0–26th

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Hapoel Beer Sheva		OFI
16	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	2
15	Fouls	10
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
574	Passes	337
62%	Possession %	38%
1.52	xG	0.75

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Hapoel Beer Sheva 43%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.47 – 1.18

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Hapoel Beer Sheva -0.5

2.05Betano · fair 1.85 · qualifies at 1.90+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Hapoel Beer Sheva -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.05 with Betano — Hapoel Beer Sheva must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 43% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 61%; we judge it at 54%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.85. The offered 2.05 implies only 49%, so the price is 10.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.47, OFI 1.18.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.0%	2.17	2.40 William Hill	41.7%	+4.3
Match result	Hapoel Beer Sheva	43.1%	2.32	2.16 Dafabet	46.3%	-3.2
Match result	Draw	27.0%	3.70	3.75 Betano	26.7%	+0.3
Match result	OFI	29.9%	3.34	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+0.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.9%	1.34	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-3.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.1%	3.98	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+2.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.5%	2.02	1.82 Betano	54.9%	-5.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.5%	1.98	2.22 Betano	45.0%	+5.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.6%	3.63	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-5.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.4%	1.38	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+5.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.0%	1.85	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-5.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Hapoel Beer Sheva favoured against OFI

Our model makes Hapoel Beer Sheva 43% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 27% and OFI at 30%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Hapoel Beer Sheva against 1.18 for OFI — a clear edge to Hapoel Beer Sheva on expected output. A combined 2.65 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 0-1 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Hapoel Beer Sheva and OFI
Hapoel Beer Sheva		OFI
6	Played	10
4-0-2	W-D-L	5-2-3
2.00	Pts / game	1.70
1.67	Goals for / game	1.40
1.00	Goals against / game	1.20
50%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	40%
50%	Clean sheets	50%
0%	Failed to score	20%
3-0-0	Home record	3-2-0
1-0-2	Away record	2-0-3
L1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Hapoel Beer Sheva · OFI

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.3	Shots	9.1
4.0	Shots on target	2.9
1.7	Corners	5.1
3.33	Cards	2.01
15.0	Fouls	10.7
45	Possession %	49
1.09	xG	1.11
3 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.3	Shots	17.7
8.3	Shots on target	6.4
3.7	Corners	6.4
2.33	Cards	2.68
10.0	Fouls	15.9
55	Possession %	51
2.09	xG	1.52
3 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Hapoel Beer Sheva	Metric	OFI
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.80 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.61 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.30
	Big chances
5.20 (better)	Shots on target	3.25
11.40 (better)	Total shots	7.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	4.75 (better)
52.8 (better)	Possession %	43.5
547 (better)	Passes	373
	Tackles
13.80	Fouls	10.50 (better)
2.20	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins: 0
Draws: 0
OFI wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Hapoel Beer Sheva v OFI0–22026-11-05

UEFA Europa League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12	Benfica won 4 of the last 4
2	Bournemouth	4	4	0	0	+9	12	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 4
3	Ferencvarosi TC	4	4	0	0	+8	12	Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of the last 4
4	Union St. Gilloise	4	3	1	0	+8	10	Union St. Gilloise won 3 of the last 4
5	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+7	10	Juventus won 3 of the last 4
6	Olympiakos Piraeus	4	3	1	0	+3	10	Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of the last 4
7	Bayer Leverkusen	4	3	0	1	+7	9	Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 4
8	Beşiktaş	4	2	1	1	+3	7	Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 4
9	Dinamo Zagreb	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of the last 4
10	Levski Sofia	4	2	1	1	+1	7	Levski Sofia won 2 of the last 4
11	Sunderland	4	2	1	1	0	7	Sunderland won 2 of the last 4
12	NEC Nijmegen	4	2	1	1	-1	7	NEC Nijmegen won 2 of the last 4
13	Lyon	4	2	1	1	-1	7	Lyon won 2 of the last 4
14	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	0	2	+3	6	AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 4
15	Anderlecht	4	2	0	2	+3	6	Anderlecht won 2 of the last 4
16	OFI	4	2	0	2	+1	6	OFI won 2 of the last 4
17	Rennes	4	1	3	0	+1	6	Rennes won 1 of the last 4
18	Omonia Nicosia	4	2	0	2	-1	6	Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 4
19	Torreense	4	2	0	2	-2	6	Torreense won 2 of the last 4
20	Real Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+5	5	Real Sociedad won 1 of the last 4
21	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+3	5	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 4
22	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	0	4	1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the last 4
23	Sparta Praha	4	1	1	2	0	4	Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 4
24	Sturm Graz	4	1	1	2	-3	4	Sturm Graz won 1 of the last 4
25	Celje	4	1	1	2	-4	4	Celje won 1 of the last 4
26	Red Bull Salzburg	4	1	1	2	-5	4	Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 4
27	Celta Vigo	4	1	0	3	-2	3	Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 4
28	AC Milan	4	1	0	3	-3	3	AC Milan won 1 of the last 4
29	Jagiellonia	4	1	0	3	-3	3	Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 4
30	Plzen	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Plzen won 1 of the last 4
31	Marseille	4	1	0	3	-4	3	Marseille won 1 of the last 4
32	Celtic	4	1	0	3	-5	3	Celtic won 1 of the last 4
33	Hapoel Beer Sheva	4	0	1	3	-7	1	Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 4
34	Lillestrom	4	0	1	3	-8	1	Lillestrom won 0 of the last 4
35	Lech Poznan	4	0	1	3	-10	1	Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 4
36	Ararat-Armenia	4	0	0	4	-10	0	Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 4