Celtic v 
Beşiktaş
Match statistics
| Celtic | Beşiktaş | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 374 | Passes | 598 |
| 38% | Possession % | 62% |
| 1.23 | xG | 1.62 |
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 62%
- Over 3.5
- 40%
- Both score
- 64%
- Model pick
- Celtic 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.70 – 1.49
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Celtic -0.25
Why this price?
Back Celtic -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.42 with Bet365 — Celtic must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 48% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 45%; we judge it at 46%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.17. The offered 2.42 implies only 41%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.99 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Celtic 1.70, Beşiktaş 1.49.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 83.3% | 1.20 | 1.20 Bet365 | 83.3% | -0.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 16.7% | 5.99 | 6.50 Betfair | 15.4% | +1.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | -1.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 38.2% | 2.62 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | +3.4 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 39.6% | 2.53 | 2.50 Bet365 | 40.0% | -0.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1.73 Bet365 | 57.8% | +2.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 63.9% | 1.57 | 1.50 William Hill | 66.7% | -2.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 36.1% | 2.77 | 3.10 Betfair | 32.3% | +3.9 |
| Match result | Celtic | 42.3% | 2.36 | 3.10 Bet365 | 32.3% | +10.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.4% | 4.10 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | -1.9 |
| Match result | Beşiktaş | 33.3% | 3.00 | 2.27 Betano | 44.1% | -10.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Celtic favoured against Beşiktaş
Our model makes Celtic 42% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Beşiktaş at 33%. The goal projection is 1.70 for Celtic against 1.49 for Beşiktaş — a slight edge to Celtic on expected output. A combined 3.19 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 1-0 6%
This season
| Celtic | Beşiktaş | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 11 |
| 10-1-2 | W-D-L | 7-1-3 |
| 2.38 | Pts / game | 2.00 |
| 2.15 | Goals for / game | 2.09 |
| 0.77 | Goals against / game | 1.09 |
| 54% | Over 2.5 | 64% |
| 46% | BTTS | 45% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 15% | Failed to score | 18% |
| 5-1-1 | Home record | 6-0-0 |
| 5-0-1 | Away record | 1-1-3 |
| W1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Celtic · Beşiktaş
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 18.1 | Shots | 15.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.6 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 7.7 | Corners | 4.9 |
| 2.11 | Cards | 2.42 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 11.4 |
| 54 | Possession % | 61 |
| 2.01 | xG | 2.05 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 14.2 | Shots | 10.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 3.9 |
| 1.89 | Cards | 3.18 |
| 9.9 | Fouls | 16.1 |
| 46 | Possession % | 39 |
| 1.47 | xG | 1.12 |
| 9 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Celtic | Metric | Beşiktaş |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 (better) | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| 1.78 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.92 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.60 (better) | Shots on target | 5.20 |
| 16.80 (better) | Total shots | 15.20 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.60 (better) | Corners | 4.20 |
| 53.0 | Possession % | 58.0 (better) |
| 540 (better) | Passes | 478 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.20 | Fouls | 11.20 (better) |
| 1.60 (better) | Offsides | 3.50 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.40 | Yellow cards | 1.80 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Celtic wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Beşiktaş wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 5.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Celtic v Beşiktaş3–22026-11-05
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 | Benfica won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 | Bournemouth won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 12 | Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 10 | Union St. Gilloise won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 | Juventus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +7 | 9 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Levski Sofia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Sunderland won 2 of the last 4 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | NEC Nijmegen won 2 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | Lyon won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | Anderlecht won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | OFI won 2 of the last 4 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 | Rennes won 1 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 | Torreense won 2 of the last 4 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 5 | Real Sociedad won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 5 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | Sturm Graz won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 | Celje won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 | Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 4 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | AC Milan won 1 of the last 4 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 4 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Plzen won 1 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Marseille won 1 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Celtic won 1 of the last 4 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 4 |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 | Lillestrom won 0 of the last 4 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 | Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 4 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 | Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 4 |