NEC Nijmegen v 
Omonia Nicosia
Match statistics
| NEC Nijmegen | Omonia Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 599 | Passes | 349 |
| 63% | Possession % | 37% |
| 1.56 | xG | 0.73 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 57%
- Model pick
- NEC Nijmegen 41%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.48 – 1.30
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Omonia Nicosia 0
Why this price?
Back Omonia Nicosia 0 on the Asian handicap at 3.10 with Bet365 — Omonia Nicosia to win; a draw returns the stake.
Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 30%; we judge it at 36%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.79. The offered 3.10 implies only 32%, so the price is 11.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.32 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.48, Omonia Nicosia 1.30.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | NEC Nijmegen | 40.9% | 2.45 | 1.85 Dafabet | 54.1% | -13.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.5% | 3.77 | 4.20 Bet365 | 23.8% | +2.7 |
| Match result | Omonia Nicosia | 32.6% | 3.06 | 4.40 Betfair | 22.7% | +9.9 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.20 Betano | 83.3% | -6.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 23.0% | 4.36 | 5.25 BetVictor | 19.0% | +3.9 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | 1.62 Betano | 61.7% | -9.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 47.6% | 2.10 | 2.47 Betano | 40.5% | +7.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 30.2% | 3.31 | 2.50 Bet365 | 40.0% | -9.8 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.57 Betano | 63.7% | +6.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 56.7% | 1.76 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | -7.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 43.3% | 2.31 | 2.45 Betfair | 40.8% | +2.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
NEC Nijmegen favoured against Omonia Nicosia
Our model makes NEC Nijmegen 41% to win this UEFA Europa League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Omonia Nicosia at 33%. The goal projection is 1.48 for NEC Nijmegen against 1.30 for Omonia Nicosia — a slight edge to NEC Nijmegen on expected output. A combined 2.77 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 0-1 7%
This season
| NEC Nijmegen | Omonia Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 2 |
| 3-5-4 | W-D-L | 1-0-1 |
| 1.17 | Pts / game | 1.50 |
| 1.67 | Goals for / game | 0.50 |
| 1.75 | Goals against / game | 0.50 |
| 75% | Over 2.5 | 0% |
| 83% | BTTS | 0% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 50% |
| 0-4-2 | Home record | 1-0-0 |
| 3-1-2 | Away record | 0-0-1 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. NEC Nijmegen · Omonia Nicosia
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.8 | Shots | 9.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 6.8 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.33 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 54 | Possession % | 37 |
| 1.73 | xG | 1.25 |
| 9 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Conceded
| 11.1 | Shots | 18.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 7.0 |
| 3.2 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.67 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 10.9 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 46 | Possession % | 63 |
| 1.62 | xG | 1.87 |
| 9 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Form comparison
| NEC Nijmegen | Metric | Omonia Nicosia |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 1.88 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.73 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.40 (better) | Shots on target | 5.00 |
| 17.20 (better) | Total shots | 15.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.20 (better) | Corners | 6.00 |
| 53.0 (better) | Possession % | 48.5 |
| 438 | Passes | 475 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.00 | Fouls | 9.00 (better) |
| 2.20 (better) | Offsides | 2.67 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.50 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- NEC Nijmegen wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Omonia Nicosia wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- NEC Nijmegen v Omonia Nicosia3–12026-11-05
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 | Benfica won 4 of the last 4 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 | Bournemouth won 4 of the last 4 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 12 | Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of the last 4 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 10 | Union St. Gilloise won 3 of the last 4 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 | Juventus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus won 3 of the last 4 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +7 | 9 | Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of the last 4 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | Beşiktaş won 2 of the last 4 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Dinamo Zagreb won 2 of the last 4 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 | Levski Sofia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Sunderland won 2 of the last 4 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | NEC Nijmegen won 2 of the last 4 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | Lyon won 2 of the last 4 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 4 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 6 | Anderlecht won 2 of the last 4 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | OFI won 2 of the last 4 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 6 | Rennes won 1 of the last 4 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 | Omonia Nicosia won 2 of the last 4 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 | Torreense won 2 of the last 4 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 5 | Real Sociedad won 1 of the last 4 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 5 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 4 |
| 22 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1899 Hoffenheim won 1 of the last 4 |
| 23 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | Sparta Praha won 1 of the last 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 | Sturm Graz won 1 of the last 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 | Celje won 1 of the last 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 | Red Bull Salzburg won 1 of the last 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 4 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | AC Milan won 1 of the last 4 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 | Jagiellonia won 1 of the last 4 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Plzen won 1 of the last 4 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 | Marseille won 1 of the last 4 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 | Celtic won 1 of the last 4 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 | Hapoel Beer Sheva won 0 of the last 4 |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 | Lillestrom won 0 of the last 4 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 | Lech Poznan won 0 of the last 4 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 | Ararat-Armenia won 0 of the last 4 |