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Premier League predictions: matchweek 9 (31 October – 2 November 2026)

Every Premier League match in matchweek 9 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 23 Oct 2026, updated 26 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Premier League, matchweek 9: ten matches, played across 31 October – 2 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Aston Villa, 52% to beat Fulham at home; the most evenly balanced game is Tottenham v Crystal Palace (Tottenham 36%, draw 26%, Crystal Palace 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Chelsea v Manchester United, at 3.57; the tightest looks Brentford v Nottingham Forest, at 2.52.

Going into the round, Manchester City lead on goal difference from Arsenal, both on 21 points, with Brighton third on 16. The bottom three are Nottingham Forest (6), Coventry (6), Sunderland (5).

The numbers this season

Premier League has averaged 2.77 goals a game over 80 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 50% of them and both sides scoring in 50%. Home sides have won 39% of matches, 29% have been drawn and away sides have won 33%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Chelsea v Manchester UnitedSat 31 Oct, 12:30

Our model makes Chelsea 42%, the draw 23% and Manchester United 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.57 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is both teams to score at 70%. Chelsea are 5th on 13 points from 8; Manchester United are 16th on 7 points from 8. Chelsea have won two of their last five; Manchester United are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats). Manchester United have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Bournemouth v LeedsSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Bournemouth 41%, the draw 27% and Leeds 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.71 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is both teams to score at 55%. Bournemouth are 13th on 9 points from 8; Leeds are 7th on 11 points from 8. Bournemouth have won two of their last five; Leeds have won one of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.

Brentford v Nottingham ForestSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Brentford 45%, the draw 28% and Nottingham Forest 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.52 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Brentford to win at 45%. Brentford are 6th on 11 points from 8; Nottingham Forest are 18th on 6 points from 8. Brentford have won one of their last five; Nottingham Forest have won one of their last five. Nottingham Forest have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Coventry v SunderlandSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Coventry 41%, the draw 27% and Sunderland 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.59 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Coventry to win at 41%. Coventry are 19th on 6 points from 8; Sunderland are 20th on 5 points from 8. Coventry have won two of their last five; Sunderland are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats).

Hull City v IpswichSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Hull City 34%, the draw 27% and Ipswich 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.68 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is both teams to score at 55%. Hull City are 10th on 10 points from 8; Ipswich are 12th on 10 points from 8. Hull City are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Ipswich have won two of their last five. Ipswich have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Manchester City v BrightonSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Manchester City 44%, the draw 25% and Brighton 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.94 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Manchester City are 1st on 21 points from 8; Brighton are 3rd on 16 points from 8. Manchester City have won four of their last five; Brighton have won four of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Tottenham v Crystal PalaceSat 31 Oct, 17:30

Our model makes Tottenham 36%, the draw 26% and Crystal Palace 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.87 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Tottenham are 14th on 9 points from 8; Crystal Palace are 17th on 7 points from 8. Tottenham have won two of their last five; Crystal Palace have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Tottenham wins, draws and Crystal Palace wins.

Aston Villa v FulhamSat 31 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Aston Villa 52%, the draw 25% and Fulham 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.82 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Aston Villa to win at 52%. Aston Villa are 9th on 11 points from 8; Fulham are 15th on 8 points from 8. Aston Villa have won three of their last five; Fulham have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Aston Villa wins, draws and Fulham wins.

Liverpool v ArsenalSun 1 Nov, 16:30

Our model makes Liverpool 30%, the draw 24% and Arsenal 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.24 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is both teams to score at 64%. Liverpool are 4th on 15 points from 8; Arsenal are 2nd on 21 points from 8. Liverpool have won three of their last five; Arsenal have won four of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Newcastle v EvertonMon 2 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Newcastle 47%, the draw 23% and Everton 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.39 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is both teams to score at 66%. Newcastle are 8th on 11 points from 8; Everton are 11th on 10 points from 8. Newcastle have won two of their last five; Everton have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Newcastle wins, draws and Everton wins.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published four picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.