Liverpool v Arsenal

4th0–11st

16:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Liverpool		Arsenal
17	Shots	10
0	Shots on target	3
7	Corners	4
18	Fouls	10
4	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	3
464	Passes	372
56%	Possession %	44%
1.12	xG	1.02

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 64%

Model pick: Arsenal 46%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.43 – 1.81

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Liverpool	30.0%	3.33	3.00 Betfair	33.3%	-3.3
Match result	Draw	23.8%	4.20	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-4.7
Match result	Arsenal	46.1%	2.17	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+6.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.9%	1.19	1.29 BetVictor	77.5%	+6.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.1%	6.23	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	-8.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	62.9%	1.59	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+10.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	37.1%	2.70	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-12.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	40.7%	2.46	3.30 BetVictor	30.3%	+10.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	59.3%	1.69	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-12.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	64.2%	1.56	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+4.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	35.8%	2.79	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-7.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Arsenal favoured against Liverpool

Our model makes Liverpool 30% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Arsenal at 46%. The goal projection is 1.43 for Liverpool against 1.81 for Arsenal — a clear edge to Arsenal on expected output. A combined 3.24 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 7%; 0-1 7%; 2-2 7%

This season

Season records for Liverpool and Arsenal
Liverpool		Arsenal
10	Played	10
5-3-2	W-D-L	9-0-1
1.80	Pts / game	2.70
1.40	Goals for / game	1.50
1.00	Goals against / game	0.50
50%	Over 2.5	40%
40%	BTTS	20%
40%	Clean sheets	70%
30%	Failed to score	10%
1-2-2	Home record	5-0-0
4-1-0	Away record	4-0-1
W1	Streak	W5

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Liverpool · Arsenal

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.0	Shots	14.0
4.3	Shots on target	4.3
5.8	Corners	6.3
2.70	Cards	1.33
15.7	Fouls	9.7
48	Possession %	60
1.50	xG	1.56
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.3	Shots	12.3
3.2	Shots on target	2.8
3.7	Corners	5.2
2.57	Cards	3.50
10.2	Fouls	15.5
52	Possession %	40
1.32	xG	0.74
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Liverpool	Metric	Arsenal
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	2.00
2.00	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
1.98 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.75
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	4.80
18.80 (better)	Total shots	14.40
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	6.40
53.2	Possession %	61.2 (better)
479	Passes	542 (better)
	Tackles
12.20	Fouls	10.00 (better)
2.80	Offsides	2.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.80	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Liverpool wins: 1
Draws: 1
Arsenal wins: 1
Goals / game: 0.67
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Liverpool v Arsenal0–12026-11-01
Arsenal v Liverpool0–02026-01-08
Liverpool v Arsenal1–02025-08-31

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5