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Premier League predictions: matchweek 10 (6–8 November 2026)

Every Premier League match in matchweek 10 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 30 Oct 2026, updated 31 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Premier League, matchweek 10: ten matches, played across 6–8 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Manchester City, 57% to beat Nottingham Forest away; the most evenly balanced game is Everton v Coventry (Everton 38%, draw 25%, Coventry 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Crystal Palace v Liverpool, at 3.38; the tightest looks Arsenal v Hull City, at 2.43.

Going into the round, Manchester City lead on goal difference from Arsenal, both on 21 points, with Brighton third on 19. The bottom three are Crystal Palace (7), Nottingham Forest (6), Sunderland (5).

The numbers this season

Premier League has averaged 2.76 goals a game over 86 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 49% of them and both sides scoring in 49%. Home sides have won 41% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 31%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Everton v CoventryFri 6 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Everton 38%, the draw 25% and Coventry 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is both teams to score at 64%. Everton are 13th on 10 points from 8; Coventry are 15th on 9 points from 9. Everton have won one of their last five; Coventry have won three of their last five.

Leeds v TottenhamSat 7 Nov, 12:30

Our model makes Leeds 44%, the draw 28% and Tottenham 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.49 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Leeds to win at 44%. Leeds are 9th on 11 points from 9; Tottenham are 14th on 9 points from 8. Leeds are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Tottenham have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Arsenal v Hull CitySat 7 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes Arsenal 57%, the draw 26% and Hull City 18%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (14%), 2.43 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is Arsenal to win at 57%. Arsenal are 2nd on 21 points from 8; Hull City are 8th on 11 points from 9. Arsenal have won four of their last five; Hull City are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats).

Fulham v NewcastleSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes Fulham 36%, the draw 27% and Newcastle 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.65 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Newcastle to win at 37%. Fulham are 16th on 8 points from 8; Newcastle are 10th on 11 points from 8. Fulham have won two of their last five; Newcastle have won two of their last five. Newcastle have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

Nottingham Forest v Manchester CitySat 7 Nov, 17:30

Our model makes Nottingham Forest 19%, the draw 24% and Manchester City 57%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.78 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Manchester City to win at 57%. Nottingham Forest are 19th on 6 points from 9; Manchester City are 1st on 21 points from 9. Nottingham Forest are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Manchester City have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Brighton v BrentfordSun 8 Nov, 14:00

Our model makes Brighton 48%, the draw 25% and Brentford 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.87 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Brighton are 3rd on 19 points from 9; Brentford are 6th on 14 points from 9. Brighton have won four of their last five; Brentford have won two of their last five. Brighton have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Crystal Palace v LiverpoolSun 8 Nov, 14:00

Our model makes Crystal Palace 28%, the draw 23% and Liverpool 49%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.38 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is Liverpool to win at 49%. Crystal Palace are 18th on 7 points from 8; Liverpool are 5th on 15 points from 8. Crystal Palace have won one of their last five; Liverpool have won three of their last five. Crystal Palace have won two of the sides' last four meetings.

Ipswich v BournemouthSun 8 Nov, 14:00

Our model makes Ipswich 25%, the draw 24% and Bournemouth 51%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Bournemouth to win at 51%. Ipswich are 12th on 11 points from 9; Bournemouth are 7th on 12 points from 9. Ipswich have won one of their last five; Bournemouth have won three of their last five.

Sunderland v ChelseaSun 8 Nov, 14:00

Our model makes Sunderland 27%, the draw 25% and Chelsea 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.88 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Chelsea to win at 47%. Sunderland are 20th on 5 points from 9; Chelsea are 4th on 16 points from 9. Sunderland are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Chelsea have won three of their last five. Sunderland have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Manchester United v Aston VillaSun 8 Nov, 16:30

Our model makes Manchester United 31%, the draw 24% and Aston Villa 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.16 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is both teams to score at 63%. Manchester United are 17th on 7 points from 9; Aston Villa are 11th on 11 points from 8. Manchester United are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Aston Villa have won three of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Manchester United wins, draws and Aston Villa wins.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published eight picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.