Everton v Coventry

6th3–117th

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Everton		Coventry
16	Shots	15
7	Shots on target	4
2	Corners	2
9	Fouls	6
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
424	Passes	438
47%	Possession %	53%
2.29	xG	1.42

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 64%

Model pick: Everton 38%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.59 – 1.58

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Everton -0.75

1.77Marathonbet · fair 1.67 · qualifies at 1.72+ · 1.93u

Why this price?

Back Everton -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.77 with Marathonbet — Everton must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 31% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 79%; we judge it at 60%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.67. The offered 1.77 implies only 56%, so the price is 5.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.93 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Everton 1.59, Coventry 1.58.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Everton	37.8%	2.65	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-21.0
Match result	Draw	24.6%	4.06	4.10 Betano	24.4%	+0.2
Match result	Coventry	37.6%	2.66	5.25 Bet365	19.0%	+18.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.0%	1.21	1.27 Betano	78.7%	+4.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.0%	5.88	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-6.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.3%	1.63	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+5.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	38.7%	2.59	2.12 Betano	47.2%	-8.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.0%	2.56	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+5.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.0%	1.64	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-8.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.7%	1.57	1.78 Betano	56.2%	+7.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.3%	2.75	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-10.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Everton v Coventry: too close to call

Our model makes Everton 38% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Coventry at 38%. The goal projection is 1.59 for Everton against 1.58 for Coventry — almost nothing to Everton on expected output. A combined 3.17 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Everton and Coventry
Everton		Coventry
10	Played	10
4-4-2	W-D-L	3-0-7
1.60	Pts / game	0.90
1.20	Goals for / game	1.00
1.00	Goals against / game	1.90
30%	Over 2.5	60%
40%	BTTS	40%
40%	Clean sheets	10%
30%	Failed to score	50%
3-1-1	Home record	2-0-3
1-3-1	Away record	1-0-4
W2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Everton · Coventry

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.7	Shots	11.8
4.8	Shots on target	3.3
4.2	Corners	3.0
1.83	Cards	1.17
8.2	Fouls	9.7
50	Possession %	40
1.60	xG	0.95
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.3	Shots	17.3
4.3	Shots on target	4.3
6.0	Corners	4.7
2.57	Cards	1.37
12.0	Fouls	11.0
50	Possession %	61
1.48	xG	1.42
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Everton	Metric	Coventry
1.20	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.37 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.86
	Big chances
4.40 (better)	Shots on target	3.40
12.20 (better)	Total shots	11.80
	Touches in opp. box
4.00 (better)	Corners	2.80
50.4 (better)	Possession %	36.8
432 (better)	Passes	323
	Tackles
9.20 (better)	Fouls	10.60
2.00	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.80	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Everton wins: 1
Draws: 0
Coventry wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Everton v Coventry3–12026-11-06

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5