Premier League · Review

Premier League matchweek 8 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Premier League result from matchweek 8 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 25 Oct 2026, updated 26 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Premier League, matchweek 8 (23–25 October 2026), is complete: ten matches, 19 goals (1.90 a game), three home wins, three draws and four away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in two of the ten and both teams scored in three.

The result the model rated least likely was Tottenham's win in Chelsea v Tottenham (0–2), which it had at 24%; the one it rated most likely was Arsenal's win in Arsenal v Everton (2–0), at 60%.

After the round, Manchester City lead on goal difference from Arsenal, both on 21 points, with Brighton third on 16. The bottom three are Nottingham Forest (6), Coventry (6), Sunderland (5).

Match by match

Ipswich 1–1 Nottingham ForestFri 23 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Ipswich 34%, the draw 27% and Nottingham Forest 39%, with Nottingham Forest favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.49–2.31: Nottingham Forest created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 56%, came in. Pick published: Ipswich -0.25 at 2.60 (free pick) — half lost.

Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester CitySat 24 Oct, 12:30

Before kick-off the model had Aston Villa 26%, the draw 23% and Manchester City 50%, with Manchester City favoured; it put Aston Villa winning at 26%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.64–1.81: Manchester City created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Manchester City to win at 50%, did not come in.

Arsenal 2–0 EvertonSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Arsenal 60%, the draw 21% and Everton 19%, so Arsenal winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.85–0.54: Arsenal created the better chances. The headline call, Arsenal to win at 60%, came in. Pick published: Arsenal -0.75 at 1.48 — won.

Coventry 0–1 FulhamSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Coventry 40%, the draw 27% and Fulham 34%, with Coventry favoured; it put Fulham winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.58–0.61: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 56%, did not come in. Pick published: Coventry -0.25 at 2.51 (free pick) — lost.

Chelsea 0–2 TottenhamSat 24 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Chelsea 54%, the draw 22% and Tottenham 24%, with Chelsea favoured; it put Tottenham winning at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.55–0.80: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 66%, did not come in.

Crystal Palace 0–2 NewcastleSun 25 Oct, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Crystal Palace 39%, the draw 25% and Newcastle 36%, with Crystal Palace favoured; it put Newcastle winning at 36%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.78–1.03: Crystal Palace created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 62%, did not come in.

Hull City 1–1 BrentfordSun 25 Oct, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Hull City 25%, the draw 28% and Brentford 48%, with Brentford favoured; it put the draw at 28%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.92–1.87: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Brentford to win at 48%, did not come in.

Liverpool 2–0 BrightonSun 25 Oct, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Liverpool 29%, the draw 23% and Brighton 48%, with Brighton favoured; it put Liverpool winning at 29%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.95–1.41: Brighton created the better chances. The headline call, Brighton to win at 48%, did not come in. Pick published: Liverpool -0.75 at 2.35 — won.

Manchester United 0–3 BournemouthSun 25 Oct, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Manchester United 43%, the draw 25% and Bournemouth 32%, with Manchester United favoured; it put Bournemouth winning at 32%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.17–2.21: Bournemouth created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 62%, did not come in.

Sunderland 0–0 LeedsSun 25 Oct, 16:30

Before kick-off the model had Sunderland 28%, the draw 28% and Leeds 44%, with Leeds favoured; it put the draw at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.91–0.81: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 56%, came in.

The numbers this season

Premier League has averaged 2.77 goals a game over 80 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 50% of them and both sides scoring in 50%. Home sides have won 39% of matches, 29% have been drawn and away sides have won 33%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.