Premier League · Review

Premier League matchweek 10 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Premier League result from matchweek 10 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 8 Nov 2026, updated 9 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Premier League, matchweek 10 (6–8 November 2026), is complete: ten matches, 30 goals (3.00 a game), six home wins, two draws and two away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the ten and both teams scored in six.

The result the model rated least likely was Nottingham Forest's win in Nottingham Forest v Manchester City (3–1), which it had at 19%; the one it rated most likely was Arsenal's win in Arsenal v Hull City (1–0), at 57%.

After the round, Arsenal lead on 27 points, five points clear of Brighton, with Manchester City third on 21. The bottom three are Manchester United (8), Sunderland (8), Crystal Palace (7).

Match by match

Everton 3–1 CoventryFri 6 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Everton 38%, the draw 25% and Coventry 38%, so Everton winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.29–1.42: Everton created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 64%, came in. Pick published: Everton -0.75 at 1.77 — won.

Leeds 1–0 TottenhamSat 7 Nov, 12:30

Before kick-off the model had Leeds 44%, the draw 28% and Tottenham 28%, so Leeds winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.05–0.80: Leeds created the better chances. The headline call, Leeds to win at 44%, came in. Pick published: Tottenham +0.25 at 2.25 — lost.

Arsenal 1–0 Hull CitySat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Arsenal 57%, the draw 26% and Hull City 18%, so Arsenal winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 1-0, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.12–0.36: Arsenal created the better chances. The headline call, Arsenal to win at 57%, came in.

Fulham 1–1 NewcastleSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Fulham 36%, the draw 27% and Newcastle 37%, with Newcastle favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.70–1.09: Newcastle created the better chances. The headline call, Newcastle to win at 37%, did not come in.

Nottingham Forest 3–1 Manchester CitySat 7 Nov, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Nottingham Forest 19%, the draw 24% and Manchester City 57%, with Manchester City favoured; it put Nottingham Forest winning at 19%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.04–1.61: Manchester City created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Manchester City to win at 57%, did not come in. Pick published: Manchester City +0.25 at 1.48 (free pick) — lost.

Brighton 2–0 BrentfordSun 8 Nov, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Brighton 48%, the draw 25% and Brentford 26%, so Brighton winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.24–0.75: Brighton created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, did not come in. Pick published: Brighton -0.5 at 1.91 — won.

Crystal Palace 1–3 LiverpoolSun 8 Nov, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Crystal Palace 28%, the draw 23% and Liverpool 49%, so Liverpool winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.47–2.71: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 66%, came in.

Ipswich 1–2 BournemouthSun 8 Nov, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Ipswich 25%, the draw 24% and Bournemouth 51%, so Bournemouth winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.32–2.18: Bournemouth created the better chances. The headline call, Bournemouth to win at 51%, came in. Pick published: Bournemouth +0.25 at 1.65 (free pick) — won.

Sunderland 1–0 ChelseaSun 8 Nov, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Sunderland 27%, the draw 25% and Chelsea 47%, with Chelsea favoured; it put Sunderland winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.58–0.55: Sunderland created the better chances. The headline call, Chelsea to win at 47%, did not come in. Pick published: Chelsea +0.25 at 1.70 — lost.

Manchester United 4–4 Aston VillaSun 8 Nov, 16:30

Before kick-off the model had Manchester United 31%, the draw 24% and Aston Villa 44%, with Aston Villa favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.63–2.94: Manchester United created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 61%, came in. Pick published: Aston Villa at 3.00 — lost.

The numbers this season

Premier League has averaged 2.73 goals a game over 100 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 47% of them and both sides scoring in 49%. Home sides have won 42% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 31%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.