Premier League · Review

Premier League matchweek 7 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Premier League result from matchweek 7 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 20 Oct 2026, updated 20 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Premier League, matchweek 7 (17–19 October 2026), is complete: ten matches, 26 goals (2.60 a game), five home wins, one draw and four away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in four of the ten and both teams scored in four.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Leeds v Manchester United (1–1), which it had at 26%; the one it rated most likely was Manchester City's win in Manchester City v Ipswich (3–2), at 67%.

After the round, Manchester City lead on 21 points, three points clear of Arsenal, with Brighton third on 16. The bottom three are Fulham (5), Nottingham Forest (5), Sunderland (4).

Match by match

Everton 0–2 ChelseaSat 17 Oct, 12:30

Before kick-off the model had Everton 33%, the draw 22% and Chelsea 45%, so Chelsea winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.43–1.47: Chelsea created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 71%, did not come in.

Brentford 1–2 LiverpoolSat 17 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Brentford 42%, the draw 25% and Liverpool 34%, with Brentford favoured; it put Liverpool winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.90–1.54: Liverpool created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 62%, came in.

Fulham 1–0 Hull CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Fulham 40%, the draw 30% and Hull City 30%, so Fulham winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.48–0.18: Fulham created the better chances. The headline call, under 3.5 goals at 81%, came in.

Manchester City 3–2 IpswichSat 17 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Manchester City 67%, the draw 19% and Ipswich 14%, so Manchester City winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 3.61–1.72: Manchester City created the better chances. The headline call, Manchester City to win at 67%, came in.

Newcastle 0–1 Aston VillaSat 17 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Newcastle 35%, the draw 23% and Aston Villa 42%, so Aston Villa winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.07–1.63: Aston Villa created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 68%, did not come in.

Bournemouth 2–0 SunderlandSun 18 Oct, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Bournemouth 46%, the draw 27% and Sunderland 27%, so Bournemouth winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 4.40–0.13: Bournemouth created the better chances. The headline call, Bournemouth to win at 46%, came in.

Brighton 5–0 Crystal PalaceSun 18 Oct, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Brighton 53%, the draw 25% and Crystal Palace 22%, so Brighton winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.00–0.77: Brighton created the better chances. The headline call, Brighton to win at 53%, came in.

Leeds 1–1 Manchester UnitedSun 18 Oct, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Leeds 33%, the draw 26% and Manchester United 41%, with Manchester United favoured; it put the draw at 26%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.48–0.93: Leeds created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 60%, came in.

Nottingham Forest 0–1 ArsenalSun 18 Oct, 16:30

Before kick-off the model had Nottingham Forest 27%, the draw 28% and Arsenal 46%, so Arsenal winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.94–1.16: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Arsenal to win at 46%, came in.

Tottenham 3–1 CoventryMon 19 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Tottenham 35%, the draw 27% and Coventry 38%, with Coventry favoured; it put Tottenham winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.90–0.79: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, came in. Pick published: Coventry -0.25 at 3.30 (free pick) — lost.

The numbers this season

Premier League has averaged 2.90 goals a game over 70 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 54% of them and both sides scoring in 53%. Home sides have won 40% of matches, 29% have been drawn and away sides have won 31%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.