Chelsea v 
Manchester United
Match statistics
| Chelsea | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 561 | Passes | 396 |
| 59% | Possession % | 41% |
| 2.71 | xG | 1.19 |
- Over 1.5
- 88%
- Over 2.5
- 69%
- Over 3.5
- 48%
- Both score
- 70%
- Model pick
- Chelsea 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 9%
- Expected goals
- 1.88 – 1.69
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Manchester United 0
Why this price?
Back Manchester United 0 on the Asian handicap at 3.00 with Bet365 — Manchester United to win; a draw returns the stake.
Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 32%; we judge it at 37%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.69. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.42 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Chelsea 1.88, Manchester United 1.69.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Chelsea | 42.5% | 2.36 | 2.02 Betano | 49.5% | -7.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.8% | 4.38 | 4.00 Betfair | 25.0% | -2.2 |
| Match result | Manchester United | 34.7% | 2.88 | 4.20 Betfair | 23.8% | +10.9 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 87.6% | 1.14 | 1.21 Betano | 82.6% | +4.9 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 12.4% | 8.04 | 5.25 BetVictor | 19.0% | -6.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | 1.65 Betano | 60.6% | +8.6 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 30.8% | 3.24 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | -11.2 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 47.8% | 2.09 | 2.52 Betano | 39.7% | +8.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | -11.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 69.5% | 1.44 | 1.57 Betano | 63.7% | +5.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 30.5% | 3.28 | 2.60 Betfair | 38.5% | -8.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Chelsea favoured against Manchester United
Our model makes Chelsea 42% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Manchester United at 35%. The goal projection is 1.88 for Chelsea against 1.69 for Manchester United — a slight edge to Chelsea on expected output. A combined 3.57 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 9%
- 2-1 8%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 3-1 5%
This season
| Chelsea | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 5-1-4 | W-D-L | 1-5-4 |
| 1.60 | Pts / game | 0.80 |
| 1.90 | Goals for / game | 1.40 |
| 1.60 | Goals against / game | 1.90 |
| 60% | Over 2.5 | 40% |
| 50% | BTTS | 60% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 40% |
| 3-1-1 | Home record | 1-2-2 |
| 2-0-3 | Away record | 0-3-2 |
| L1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Chelsea · Manchester United
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.7 | Shots | 18.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 5.7 | Corners | 6.7 |
| 2.03 | Cards | 2.70 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 12.3 |
| 52 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.29 | xG | 1.57 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 10.7 | Shots | 12.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 5.7 |
| 5.2 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 3.70 | Cards | 2.03 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 12.5 |
| 48 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.30 | xG | 2.11 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Chelsea | Metric | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 (better) | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 1.08 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.07 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Shots on target | 4.20 |
| 13.60 | Total shots | 15.20 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.60 (better) | Corners | 5.80 |
| 56.0 (better) | Possession % | 46.6 |
| 505 (better) | Passes | 487 |
| Tackles | ||
| 8.40 (better) | Fouls | 9.40 |
| 1.40 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.20 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Chelsea wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Manchester United wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 33%
- Chelsea v Manchester United2–02026-10-31
- Chelsea v Manchester United0–12026-04-18
- Manchester United v Chelsea2–12025-09-20
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +10 | 27 | Arsenal won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | +19 | 22 | Brighton won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | +8 | 21 | Manchester City won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 18 | Liverpool won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 16 | Chelsea won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 16 | Everton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 | Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +5 | 14 | Brentford won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 14 | Leeds won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 | Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 | Tottenham won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 | Newcastle won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | Hull City won 0 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 | Ipswich won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 | Fulham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 | Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 9 | Coventry won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 8 | Manchester United won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 | Sunderland won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5 |