Newcastle v 
Everton
Match statistics
| Newcastle | Everton | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 428 | Passes | 396 |
| 52% | Possession % | 48% |
| 1.33 | xG | 2.36 |
- Over 1.5
- 86%
- Over 2.5
- 66%
- Over 3.5
- 44%
- Both score
- 66%
- Model pick
- Newcastle 47%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.90 – 1.50
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Newcastle -0.25
Why this price?
Back Newcastle -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.98 with Bet365 — Newcastle must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 58%; we judge it at 56%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.79. The offered 1.98 implies only 51%, so the price is 10.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Newcastle 1.90, Everton 1.50.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 2.77 with Betano — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 35%; we judge it at 38%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.60. The offered 2.77 implies only 36%, so the price is 6.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.93 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Newcastle 1.90, Everton 1.50.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Newcastle | 46.7% | 2.14 | 2.40 Dafabet | 41.7% | +5.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.2% | 4.32 | 3.65 Betano | 27.4% | -4.2 |
| Match result | Everton | 30.1% | 3.32 | 3.25 Betfair | 30.8% | -0.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 85.7% | 1.17 | 1.24 Betano | 80.6% | +5.1 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 14.3% | 7.01 | 4.60 BetVictor | 21.7% | -7.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | +8.8 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 34.1% | 2.93 | 2.20 Bet365 | 45.5% | -11.4 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 44.0% | 2.27 | 2.80 Betfair | 35.7% | +8.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 56.0% | 1.79 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | -10.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 66.5% | 1.50 | 1.60 Betano | 62.5% | +4.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 33.5% | 2.98 | 2.50 Betfair | 40.0% | -6.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Newcastle favoured against Everton
Our model makes Newcastle 47% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Everton at 30%. The goal projection is 1.90 for Newcastle against 1.50 for Everton — a clear edge to Newcastle on expected output. A combined 3.39 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 2-0 6%
This season
| Newcastle | Everton | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 3-3-4 | W-D-L | 4-4-2 |
| 1.20 | Pts / game | 1.60 |
| 1.30 | Goals for / game | 1.20 |
| 1.60 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 30% |
| 60% | BTTS | 40% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 30% |
| 1-2-2 | Home record | 3-1-1 |
| 2-1-2 | Away record | 1-3-1 |
| D1 | Streak | W2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Newcastle · Everton
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.9 | Shots | 13.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.7 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 4.3 | Corners | 4.2 |
| 2.63 | Cards | 1.83 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 8.2 |
| 52 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.24 | xG | 1.60 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 15.0 | Shots | 15.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 4.9 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 1.86 | Cards | 2.57 |
| 8.9 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 48 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.66 | xG | 1.48 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Newcastle | Metric | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 (better) | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 1.20 (better) |
| 1.25 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.22 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.80 | Shots on target | 4.60 (better) |
| 12.80 | Total shots | 13.20 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.60 | Corners | 4.80 (better) |
| 53.8 (better) | Possession % | 53.6 |
| 453 | Passes | 504 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.20 | Fouls | 8.80 (better) |
| 3.20 | Offsides | 2.40 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.60 | Yellow cards | 1.80 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Newcastle wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Everton wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 3.67
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- Newcastle v Everton0–12026-11-02
- Newcastle v Everton2–32026-02-28
- Everton v Newcastle1–42025-11-29
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +10 | 27 | Arsenal won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | +19 | 22 | Brighton won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | +8 | 21 | Manchester City won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 18 | Liverpool won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 16 | Chelsea won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 16 | Everton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 | Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +5 | 14 | Brentford won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 14 | Leeds won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 13 | Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 | Tottenham won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 | Newcastle won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | Hull City won 0 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 | Ipswich won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 | Fulham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 | Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 9 | Coventry won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 8 | Manchester United won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 | Sunderland won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5 |