Hull City v Ipswich

13th2–214th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Hull City		Ipswich
9	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	3
6	Corners	3
13	Fouls	12
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	3
336	Passes	560
38%	Possession %	62%
0.76	xG	1.08

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Ipswich 39%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.39

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Hull City	34.2%	2.92	2.90 Dafabet	34.5%	-0.2
Match result	Draw	27.1%	3.69	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-1.4
Match result	Ipswich	38.6%	2.59	2.70 Dafabet	37.0%	+1.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.4%	1.33	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-2.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.6%	4.06	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	-0.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	50.1%	2.00	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-2.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	49.9%	2.00	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-0.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.1%	3.56	3.30 BetVictor	30.3%	-2.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.9%	1.39	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+0.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.0%	1.82	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-4.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.0%	2.22	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	+0.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Hull City v Ipswich: too close to call

Our model makes Hull City 34% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Ipswich at 39%. The goal projection is 1.29 for Hull City against 1.39 for Ipswich — almost nothing to Ipswich on expected output. A combined 2.68 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 1-0 8%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Hull City and Ipswich
Hull City		Ipswich
10	Played	10
2-5-3	W-D-L	3-2-5
1.10	Pts / game	1.10
1.10	Goals for / game	1.50
1.10	Goals against / game	2.00
40%	Over 2.5	70%
50%	BTTS	80%
30%	Clean sheets	0%
30%	Failed to score	20%
1-4-0	Home record	2-1-2
1-1-3	Away record	1-1-3
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Hull City · Ipswich

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.7	Shots	10.7
2.7	Shots on target	3.3
5.2	Corners	2.3
2.67	Cards	2.33
12.3	Fouls	10.5
36	Possession %	49
1.03	xG	1.21
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.8	Shots	15.7
6.2	Shots on target	4.2
6.0	Corners	4.8
1.37	Cards	2.33
8.0	Fouls	11.3
64	Possession %	51
1.45	xG	2.16
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Hull City	Metric	Ipswich
1.00	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
1.12	Expected goals (xG)	1.48 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	4.20 (better)
11.40 (better)	Total shots	10.40
	Touches in opp. box
6.40 (better)	Corners	3.00
35.8	Possession %	44.2 (better)
315	Passes	417 (better)
	Tackles
13.00	Fouls	12.60 (better)
1.20 (better)	Offsides	1.80
	Throw-ins
3.20	Yellow cards	2.40 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Hull City wins: 0
Draws: 1
Ipswich wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Hull City v Ipswich2–22026-10-31
Ipswich v Hull City1–02026-03-03
Hull City v Ipswich0–22025-11-25

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5