Manchester City v Brighton

3rd0–12nd

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Manchester City		Brighton
21	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	3
8	Corners	2
9	Fouls	13
0	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
596	Passes	362
62%	Possession %	38%
1.96	xG	1.02

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Manchester City 44%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.62 – 1.32

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Brighton 0

3.34Marathonbet · fair 3.02 · qualifies at 3.11+ · 1.12u

Why this price?

Back Brighton 0 on the Asian handicap at 3.34 with Marathonbet — Brighton to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 28%; we judge it at 33%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.02. The offered 3.34 implies only 30%, so the price is 10.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.12 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Manchester City 1.62, Brighton 1.32.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.2%	4.94	7.00 Betfair	14.3%	+6.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.4%	1.77	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-10.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.6%	2.29	3.10 BetVictor	32.3%	+11.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.0%	2.94	2.18 Betano	45.9%	-11.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.0%	1.51	1.83 Betano	54.6%	+11.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.4%	1.69	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-7.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.6%	2.46	2.75 Betfair	36.4%	+4.3
Match result	Manchester City	44.0%	2.27	1.76 Dafabet	56.8%	-12.8
Match result	Draw	25.4%	3.94	4.60 Dafabet	21.7%	+3.7
Match result	Brighton	30.6%	3.27	4.80 Dafabet	20.8%	+9.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.8%	1.25	1.15 Betano	87.0%	-7.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Manchester City favoured against Brighton

Our model makes Manchester City 44% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Brighton at 31%. The goal projection is 1.62 for Manchester City against 1.32 for Brighton — a clear edge to Manchester City on expected output. A combined 2.94 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 1-2 7%; 2-0 7%

This season

Season records for Manchester City and Brighton
Manchester City		Brighton
10	Played	10
7-0-3	W-D-L	7-1-2
2.10	Pts / game	2.20
2.10	Goals for / game	2.60
1.30	Goals against / game	0.70
70%	Over 2.5	50%
60%	BTTS	20%
30%	Clean sheets	70%
10%	Failed to score	10%
4-0-1	Home record	4-1-0
3-0-2	Away record	3-0-2
L3	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Manchester City · Brighton

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.3	Shots	15.2
5.5	Shots on target	4.7
6.0	Corners	4.8
1.17	Cards	2.87
11.5	Fouls	11.8
66	Possession %	52
2.19	xG	1.56
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.7	Shots	11.2
4.7	Shots on target	2.7
3.7	Corners	5.5
2.87	Cards	0.87
16.0	Fouls	9.8
35	Possession %	48
1.50	xG	1.02
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Manchester City	Metric	Brighton
3.60 (better)	Goals scored	2.80
2.00	Goals conceded	0.00 (better)
2.62 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	2.03
	Big chances
6.40 (better)	Shots on target	6.20
18.80	Total shots	21.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.60	Corners	7.60 (better)
61.6 (better)	Possession %	57.0
592 (better)	Passes	487
	Tackles
10.40 (better)	Fouls	12.40
1.50	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	1.60
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Manchester City wins: 0
Draws: 1
Brighton wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5