Aston Villa v Fulham

10th1–115th

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Aston Villa		Fulham
16	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	5
7	Corners	7
7	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	4
434	Passes	540
45%	Possession %	55%
1.87	xG	2.26

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Aston Villa 52%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.74 – 1.09

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Aston Villa	52.0%	1.92	2.05 Betano	48.8%	+3.2
Match result	Draw	24.8%	4.03	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-1.8
Match result	Fulham	23.2%	4.31	3.85 Betano	26.0%	-2.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.9%	1.28	1.25 Bet365	80.0%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.1%	4.52	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	-0.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.6%	1.86	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-1.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.4%	2.16	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+0.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.3%	3.19	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-2.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.7%	1.46	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+2.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.2%	1.81	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-4.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.8%	2.23	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+1.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Aston Villa favoured against Fulham

Our model makes Aston Villa 52% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Fulham at 23%. The goal projection is 1.74 for Aston Villa against 1.09 for Fulham — a substantial edge to Aston Villa on expected output. A combined 2.82 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 0-0 6%

This season

Season records for Aston Villa and Fulham
Aston Villa		Fulham
10	Played	10
3-4-3	W-D-L	2-4-4
1.30	Pts / game	1.00
1.40	Goals for / game	1.00
1.70	Goals against / game	1.20
60%	Over 2.5	30%
60%	BTTS	60%
20%	Clean sheets	30%
30%	Failed to score	20%
1-2-2	Home record	1-2-2
2-2-1	Away record	1-2-2
D2	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Aston Villa · Fulham

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.3	Shots	13.3
4.5	Shots on target	5.0
3.3	Corners	5.7
2.00	Cards	2.53
11.3	Fouls	10.7
44	Possession %	58
1.68	xG	1.42
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.5	Shots	13.8
5.5	Shots on target	3.5
6.5	Corners	5.2
3.33	Cards	1.17
15.7	Fouls	8.8
56	Possession %	42
1.94	xG	1.09
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Aston Villa	Metric	Fulham
2.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.00
2.10 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.23
	Big chances
6.60 (better)	Shots on target	4.80
16.80 (better)	Total shots	11.40
	Touches in opp. box
5.60 (better)	Corners	4.40
47.8	Possession %	57.0 (better)
413	Passes	501 (better)
	Tackles
11.60	Fouls	8.20 (better)
1.00	Offsides	1.00
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Aston Villa wins: 1
Draws: 1
Fulham wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Aston Villa v Fulham1–12026-10-31
Fulham v Aston Villa1–02026-04-25
Aston Villa v Fulham3–12025-09-28

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5