Bournemouth v Leeds

7th2–09th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Bournemouth		Leeds
11	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	1
4	Corners	4
12	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
409	Passes	509
44%	Possession %	56%
1.28	xG	0.69

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Bournemouth 41%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.44 – 1.27

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Bournemouth	40.6%	2.46	2.30 Betano	43.5%	-2.9
Match result	Draw	26.9%	3.72	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-0.9
Match result	Leeds	32.6%	3.07	3.70 Betano	27.0%	+5.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.9%	1.32	1.30 Betano	76.9%	-1.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.1%	4.15	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-2.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	50.9%	1.97	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-1.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	49.1%	2.04	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-0.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.8%	3.47	3.40 BetVictor	29.4%	-0.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.2%	1.41	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.5%	1.80	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.5%	2.25	2.22 Betano	45.0%	-0.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bournemouth favoured against Leeds

Our model makes Bournemouth 41% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Leeds at 33%. The goal projection is 1.44 for Bournemouth against 1.27 for Leeds — a slight edge to Bournemouth on expected output. A combined 2.71 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 9%; 2-1 9%; 0-1 8%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Bournemouth and Leeds
Bournemouth		Leeds
10	Played	10
4-3-3	W-D-L	3-5-2
1.50	Pts / game	1.40
1.60	Goals for / game	1.00
1.40	Goals against / game	0.80
60%	Over 2.5	20%
60%	BTTS	50%
30%	Clean sheets	40%
10%	Failed to score	30%
2-2-1	Home record	2-3-0
2-1-2	Away record	1-2-2
W4	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bournemouth · Leeds

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.8	Shots	12.6
4.2	Shots on target	3.9
5.0	Corners	4.3
2.33	Cards	2.14
15.2	Fouls	13.4
50	Possession %	51
2.06	xG	1.31
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.3	Shots	11.1
2.8	Shots on target	4.4
3.0	Corners	3.7
2.20	Cards	2.00
10.2	Fouls	11.4
51	Possession %	49
1.02	xG	1.22
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bournemouth	Metric	Leeds
1.80	Goals scored	1.80
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
2.53 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.37
	Big chances
5.20 (better)	Shots on target	4.80
18.00 (better)	Total shots	13.60
	Touches in opp. box
5.60 (better)	Corners	4.00
57.4 (better)	Possession %	51.2
481 (better)	Passes	448
	Tackles
14.20	Fouls	12.80 (better)
1.60 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
2.60	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Bournemouth wins: 1
Draws: 2
Leeds wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Bournemouth v Leeds2–02026-10-31
Bournemouth v Leeds2–22026-04-22
Leeds v Bournemouth2–22025-09-27

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5