Brentford v Nottingham Forest

8th2–016th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Brentford		Nottingham Forest
7	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	1
3	Corners	4
6	Fouls	17
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
339	Passes	476
42%	Possession %	58%
0.51	xG	0.87

Over 1.5: 72%
Over 2.5: 46%
Over 3.5: 25%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Brentford 45%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.44 – 1.08

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Brentford	44.7%	2.23	2.17 Dafabet	46.1%	-1.3
Match result	Draw	27.6%	3.62	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	+0.6
Match result	Nottingham Forest	27.7%	3.62	3.70 Betano	27.0%	+0.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	72.3%	1.38	1.24 Betano	80.6%	-8.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	27.7%	3.61	4.50 BetVictor	22.2%	+5.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	46.1%	2.17	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-11.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	53.9%	1.85	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+8.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	24.6%	4.06	2.80 Betano	35.7%	-11.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	75.4%	1.33	1.47 Betano	68.0%	+7.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.0%	1.96	1.65 Betfair	60.6%	-9.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.0%	2.04	2.40 Betfair	41.7%	+7.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Brentford favoured against Nottingham Forest

Our model makes Brentford 45% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 28% and Nottingham Forest at 28%. The goal projection is 1.44 for Brentford against 1.08 for Nottingham Forest — a clear edge to Brentford on expected output. A combined 2.52 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 11%; 2-1 9%; 0-0 9%; 2-0 8%

This season

Season records for Brentford and Nottingham Forest
Brentford		Nottingham Forest
10	Played	10
3-5-2	W-D-L	2-3-5
1.40	Pts / game	0.90
1.60	Goals for / game	0.90
1.10	Goals against / game	1.30
50%	Over 2.5	40%
60%	BTTS	50%
30%	Clean sheets	10%
10%	Failed to score	50%
3-1-1	Home record	1-1-3
0-4-1	Away record	1-2-2
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Brentford · Nottingham Forest

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.5	Shots	17.5
3.2	Shots on target	3.7
3.5	Corners	5.7
2.67	Cards	2.17
10.5	Fouls	12.8
42	Possession %	46
1.07	xG	1.54
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.7	Shots	9.7
3.8	Shots on target	3.2
6.5	Corners	3.8
2.00	Cards	0.83
10.8	Fouls	8.5
58	Possession %	54
1.68	xG	1.14
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Brentford	Metric	Nottingham Forest
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
1.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.27	Expected goals (xG)	1.72 (better)
	Big chances
4.40 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
13.80	Total shots	19.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.40	Corners	5.00 (better)
45.2	Possession %	46.4 (better)
413 (better)	Passes	380
	Tackles
13.00 (better)	Fouls	14.80
1.60 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	2.40
1.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Brentford wins: 1
Draws: 0
Nottingham Forest wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Brentford v Nottingham Forest2–02026-10-31
Brentford v Nottingham Forest0–22026-01-25
Nottingham Forest v Brentford3–12025-08-17

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5