Coventry v Sunderland

17th3–119th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Coventry		Sunderland
12	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	2
4	Corners	4
16	Fouls	9
2	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	1
2	Offsides	1
339	Passes	438
43%	Possession %	57%
0.79	xG	1.72

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Coventry 41%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.41 – 1.19

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Coventry	41.4%	2.42	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	+10.2
Match result	Draw	27.5%	3.64	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-1.1
Match result	Sunderland	31.1%	3.21	2.38 Bet365	42.0%	-10.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.8%	1.36	1.33 Betano	75.2%	-1.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.2%	3.81	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-1.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.0%	2.08	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-2.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.0%	1.92	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-0.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.3%	3.81	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-1.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.7%	1.36	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	+0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.1%	1.88	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-2.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.9%	2.13	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-0.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Coventry favoured against Sunderland

Our model makes Coventry 41% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 27% and Sunderland at 31%. The goal projection is 1.41 for Coventry against 1.19 for Sunderland — a slight edge to Coventry on expected output. A combined 2.59 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 0-1 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Coventry and Sunderland
Coventry		Sunderland
10	Played	10
3-0-7	W-D-L	2-2-6
0.90	Pts / game	0.80
1.00	Goals for / game	0.80
1.90	Goals against / game	1.70
60%	Over 2.5	30%
40%	BTTS	40%
10%	Clean sheets	30%
50%	Failed to score	40%
2-0-3	Home record	2-1-2
1-0-4	Away record	0-1-4
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Coventry · Sunderland

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.8	Shots	12.2
3.3	Shots on target	3.3
3.0	Corners	4.2
1.17	Cards	1.90
9.7	Fouls	10.8
40	Possession %	46
0.95	xG	1.60
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.3	Shots	15.2
4.3	Shots on target	4.7
4.7	Corners	4.5
1.37	Cards	2.20
11.0	Fouls	13.3
61	Possession %	54
1.42	xG	1.75
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Coventry	Metric	Sunderland
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
2.40	Goals conceded	2.20 (better)
1.07	Expected goals (xG)	1.85 (better)
	Big chances
4.20	Shots on target	5.60 (better)
12.00	Total shots	15.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	6.00 (better)
35.6	Possession %	52.0 (better)
300	Passes	426 (better)
	Tackles
10.60 (better)	Fouls	12.20
1.80 (better)	Offsides	2.25
	Throw-ins
1.75	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.33	Red cards	0.25 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Coventry wins: 1
Draws: 0
Sunderland wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Coventry v Sunderland3–12026-10-31

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Brighton	10	7	1	2	+19	22	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
3	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
4	Liverpool	10	5	3	2	+4	18	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
5	Chelsea	10	5	1	4	+3	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
6	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
7	Bournemouth	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5
8	Brentford	10	3	5	2	+5	14	Brentford won 1 of the last 5
9	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
10	Aston Villa	10	3	4	3	-3	13	Aston Villa won 2 of the last 5
11	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
12	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	10	3	2	5	-5	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	10	1	5	4	-5	8	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Sunderland	10	2	2	6	-9	8	Sunderland won 1 of the last 5
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5