Tottenham won 3 of the last 5LWWWD11th2–0Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5LLLLW20th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Tottenham
Crystal Palace
34
Shots
2
9
Shots on target
1
19
Corners
0
8
Fouls
10
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
1
2
Offsides
1
815
Passes
223
79%
Possession %
21%
3.55
xG
0.21
36%
26%
38%
1 · TottenhamXCrystal Palace · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
32%
Both score
59%
Model pick
Crystal Palace 38%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.45
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Over 2.5
54.6%
1.83
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-5.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
45.4%
2.20
2.42 Betano
41.3%
+4.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
32.3%
3.10
2.65 Betano
37.7%
-5.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
67.7%
1.48
1.52 Betano
65.8%
+1.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
58.5%
1.71
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
-0.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
41.5%
2.41
2.20 Betano
45.5%
-4.0
Match result
Tottenham
36.2%
2.76
1.70 Betano
58.8%
-22.6
Match result
Draw
26.1%
3.83
4.75 Bet365
21.1%
+5.1
Match result
Crystal Palace
37.7%
2.66
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
+21.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.6%
1.27
1.22 Betano
82.0%
-3.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.4%
4.67
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
+1.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Tottenham v Crystal Palace: too close to call
Our model makes Tottenham 36% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Crystal Palace at 38%. The goal projection is 1.42 for Tottenham against 1.45 for Crystal Palace — almost nothing to Crystal Palace on expected output. A combined 2.87 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Tottenham
Metric
Crystal Palace
1.40
Goals scored
1.40
1.60 (better)
Goals conceded
2.60
1.19
Expected goals (xG)
1.30 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.60 (better)
Shots on target
3.75
15.80 (better)
Total shots
9.50
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.60 (better)
Corners
4.00
57.4 (better)
Possession %
44.3
547 (better)
Passes
403
—
Tackles
—
13.00
Fouls
11.50 (better)
3.60
Offsides
1.75 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.40 (better)
Yellow cards
1.75
0.20
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Tottenham v 
Crystal Palace