Liga MX · Review

Liga MX Apertura, round 16 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Liga MX result from Apertura, round 16 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 9 Nov 2026, updated 10 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Liga MX, Apertura, round 16 (7–9 November 2026), is complete: nine matches, 26 goals (2.89 a game), two home wins, two draws and five away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in four of the nine and both teams scored in four.

The result the model rated least likely was FC Juarez's win in Atletico San Luis v FC Juarez (0–1), which it had at 20%; the one it rated most likely was Toluca's win in Toluca v Monterrey (4–0), at 50%.

After the round, Cruz Azul lead on 32 points, two points clear of Club America, with Guadalajara Chivas third on 30. The bottom three are Atlante FC (14), Necaxa (13), FC Juarez (11).

Match by match

Atletico San Luis 0–1 FC JuarezSat 7 Nov, 01:00

Before kick-off the model had Atletico San Luis 58%, the draw 22% and FC Juarez 20%, with Atletico San Luis favoured; it put FC Juarez winning at 20%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.01–1.48: FC Juarez created the better chances. The headline call, Atletico San Luis to win at 58%, did not come in.

Necaxa 1–0 Club TijuanaSat 7 Nov, 01:00

Before kick-off the model had Necaxa 29%, the draw 26% and Club Tijuana 45%, with Club Tijuana favoured; it put Necaxa winning at 29%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.32–1.75: Club Tijuana created the better chances. The headline call, Club Tijuana to win at 45%, did not come in. Pick published: Club Tijuana at 3.00 — lost.

Atlante FC 0–2 Santos LagunaSat 7 Nov, 03:00

Before kick-off the model had Atlante FC 38%, the draw 27% and Santos Laguna 35%, with Atlante FC favoured; it put Santos Laguna winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.66–0.71: Atlante FC created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 56%, did not come in.

Atlas 1–4 CF PachucaSat 7 Nov, 23:00

Before kick-off the model had Atlas 35%, the draw 27% and CF Pachuca 38%, so CF Pachuca winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.26–1.91: CF Pachuca created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, came in.

Tigres UANL 2–3 Cruz AzulSun 8 Nov, 01:00

Before kick-off the model had Tigres UANL 34%, the draw 25% and Cruz Azul 41%, so Cruz Azul winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.17–2.38: Tigres UANL created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 58%, came in.

Toluca 4–0 MonterreySun 8 Nov, 01:00

Before kick-off the model had Toluca 50%, the draw 24% and Monterrey 27%, so Toluca winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.11–0.42: Toluca created the better chances. The headline call, Toluca to win at 50%, came in. Pick published: Toluca -0.75 at 1.81 — won.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–2 Club AmericaSun 8 Nov, 03:10

Before kick-off the model had U.N.A.M. - Pumas 38%, the draw 24% and Club America 38%, with Club America favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.61–1.85: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 66%, came in.

Club Queretaro 0–2 PueblaMon 9 Nov, 00:00

Before kick-off the model had Club Queretaro 47%, the draw 27% and Puebla 26%, with Club Queretaro favoured; it put Puebla winning at 26%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.49–1.34: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Club Queretaro to win at 47%, did not come in. Picks published: Club Queretaro -0.5 at 1.80 (free pick) — lost; Under 2.5 at 2.22 — won.

Leon 1–1 Guadalajara ChivasMon 9 Nov, 02:10

Before kick-off the model had Leon 25%, the draw 25% and Guadalajara Chivas 50%, with Guadalajara Chivas favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.40–1.65: Guadalajara Chivas created the better chances. The headline call, Guadalajara Chivas to win at 50%, did not come in. Pick published: Leon -0.5 at 3.10 (free pick) — lost.

The numbers this season

Liga MX has averaged 3.02 goals a game over 143 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 53% of them and both sides scoring in 61%. Home sides have won 37% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 36%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.