Leon v Guadalajara Chivas

7th1–13rd

02:10 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Leon		Guadalajara Chivas
8	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	6
2	Corners	6
10	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	1
1	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	2
338	Passes	675
33%	Possession %	67%
0.40	xG	1.65

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Guadalajara Chivas 50%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.18 – 1.75

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Leon -0.5

3.10Bet365 · fair 2.91 · qualifies at 2.99+ · 0.79u

Why this price?

Back Leon -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 3.10 with Bet365 — Leon must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 25% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 41%; we judge it at 34%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.91. The offered 3.10 implies only 32%, so the price is 6.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.79 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Leon 1.18, Guadalajara Chivas 1.75.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Leon	25.0%	4.00	3.80 Bet365	26.3%	-1.3
Match result	Draw	24.6%	4.06	3.70 BetVictor	27.0%	-2.4
Match result	Guadalajara Chivas	50.4%	1.99	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+4.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.5%	1.26	1.22 Betano	82.0%	-2.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.5%	4.89	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	-1.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.0%	1.78	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	44.0%	2.27	2.25 Betano	44.4%	-0.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.7%	2.97	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	-3.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.3%	1.51	1.52 Betano	65.8%	+0.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.7%	1.73	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-6.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.3%	2.36	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+0.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Guadalajara Chivas favoured against Leon

Our model makes Leon 25% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 25% and Guadalajara Chivas at 50%. The goal projection is 1.18 for Leon against 1.75 for Guadalajara Chivas — a substantial edge to Guadalajara Chivas on expected output. A combined 2.93 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 10%; 0-1 9%; 0-2 8%; 2-1 6%

This season

Season records for Leon and Guadalajara Chivas
Leon		Guadalajara Chivas
16	Played	16
6-5-5	W-D-L	8-6-2
1.44	Pts / game	1.88
1.44	Goals for / game	1.63
1.31	Goals against / game	0.94
38%	Over 2.5	31%
69%	BTTS	50%
25%	Clean sheets	38%
6%	Failed to score	13%
4-2-2	Home record	5-1-2
2-3-3	Away record	3-5-0
D1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Leon · Guadalajara Chivas

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.1	Shots	17.4
5.1	Shots on target	5.6
3.8	Corners	7.7
2.91	Cards	1.14
12.8	Fouls	11.3
47	Possession %	60
1.67	xG	1.53
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.0	Shots	9.1
5.3	Shots on target	4.3
6.5	Corners	5.4
2.38	Cards	1.86
13.1	Fouls	12.3
53	Possession %	40
1.61	xG	1.09
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Leon	Metric	Guadalajara Chivas
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.60	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.58 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.44
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	5.60 (better)
11.80	Total shots	15.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.20	Corners	7.00 (better)
45.6	Possession %	55.4 (better)
352	Passes	478 (better)
	Tackles
14.00	Fouls	12.60 (better)
2.20	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.33	Red cards	0.20 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Leon wins: 1
Draws: 1
Guadalajara Chivas wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Liga MX table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Cruz Azul	16	10	2	4	+11	32	Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5
2	Club America	16	8	6	2	+15	30	Club America won 1 of the last 5
3	Guadalajara Chivas	16	8	6	2	+11	30	Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5
4	Toluca	16	7	6	3	+14	27	Toluca won 1 of the last 5
5	Atlas	16	8	3	5	-3	27	Atlas won 3 of the last 5
6	Santos Laguna	16	8	1	7	+3	25	Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5
7	Leon	16	6	5	5	+2	23	Leon won 1 of the last 5
8	CF Pachuca	16	6	4	6	+9	22	CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5
9	Club Tijuana	16	5	7	4	+3	22	Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5
10	Monterrey	15	6	3	6	+1	21	Monterrey won 2 of the last 5
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	16	5	6	5	-2	21	U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5
12	Club Queretaro	15	6	2	7	-5	20	Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 5
13	Puebla	16	5	4	7	-4	19	Puebla won 1 of the last 5
14	Atletico San Luis	16	5	4	7	-5	19	Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5
15	Tigres UANL	16	3	6	7	-8	15	Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5
16	Atlante FC	16	3	5	8	-10	14	Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5
17	Necaxa	16	3	4	9	-11	13	Necaxa won 1 of the last 5
18	FC Juarez	16	3	2	11	-21	11	FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5