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Liga MX predictions: Apertura, round 15 (31 October – 2 November 2026)

Every Liga MX match in Apertura, round 15 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 23 Oct 2026, updated 25 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Liga MX, Apertura, round 15: nine matches, played across 31 October – 2 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Cruz Azul, 60% to beat Leon at home; the most evenly balanced game is CF Pachuca v Tigres UANL (CF Pachuca 41%, draw 28%, Tigres UANL 31%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Cruz Azul v Leon, at 3.52; the tightest looks CF Pachuca v Tigres UANL, at 2.56.

Going into the round, Club America lead on 27 points, one point clear of Guadalajara Chivas, with Toluca third on 23. The bottom three are CF Pachuca (13), Necaxa (10), FC Juarez (5).

The numbers this season

Liga MX has averaged 2.95 goals a game over 120 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 51% of them and both sides scoring in 60%. Home sides have won 37% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 36%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Atletico San Luis v AtlasSat 31 Oct, 01:00

Our model makes Atletico San Luis 43%, the draw 25% and Atlas 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.98 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 57%. Atletico San Luis are 10th on 19 points from 14; Atlas are 6th on 21 points from 13. Atletico San Luis have won three of their last five; Atlas have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Atletico San Luis wins, draws and Atlas wins.

FC Juarez v Club QueretaroSat 31 Oct, 01:00

Our model makes FC Juarez 27%, the draw 26% and Club Queretaro 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.81 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is Club Queretaro to win at 47%. FC Juarez are 18th on 5 points from 14; Club Queretaro are 8th on 20 points from 12. FC Juarez are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Club Queretaro have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Puebla v U.N.A.M. - PumasSat 31 Oct, 03:00

Our model makes Puebla 28%, the draw 26% and U.N.A.M. - Pumas 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.76 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is U.N.A.M. - Pumas to win at 46%. Puebla are 13th on 16 points from 13; U.N.A.M. - Pumas are 12th on 17 points from 14. Puebla are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); U.N.A.M. - Pumas have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

CF Pachuca v Tigres UANLSat 31 Oct, 23:00

Our model makes CF Pachuca 41%, the draw 28% and Tigres UANL 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is CF Pachuca to win at 41%. CF Pachuca are 16th on 13 points from 13; Tigres UANL are 14th on 15 points from 14. CF Pachuca are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Tigres UANL have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between CF Pachuca wins, draws and Tigres UANL wins.

Monterrey v Club TijuanaSun 1 Nov, 01:00

Our model makes Monterrey 45%, the draw 25% and Club Tijuana 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.94 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 56%. Monterrey are 7th on 20 points from 13; Club Tijuana are 11th on 17 points from 12. Monterrey have won two of their last five; Club Tijuana are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat). Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.

Guadalajara Chivas v Atlante FCSun 1 Nov, 01:07

Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas 59%, the draw 23% and Atlante FC 17%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (11%), 2.75 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Guadalajara Chivas to win at 59%. Guadalajara Chivas are 2nd on 26 points from 14; Atlante FC are 15th on 14 points from 14. Guadalajara Chivas have won two of their last five; Atlante FC have won two of their last five.

Club America v TolucaSun 1 Nov, 03:00

Our model makes Club America 47%, the draw 23% and Toluca 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.51 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 68%. Club America are 1st on 27 points from 12; Toluca are 3rd on 23 points from 14. Club America are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Toluca are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Club America wins, draws and Toluca wins.

Santos Laguna v NecaxaSun 1 Nov, 23:00

Our model makes Santos Laguna 51%, the draw 24% and Necaxa 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.10 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Santos Laguna to win at 51%. Santos Laguna are 9th on 19 points from 13; Necaxa are 17th on 10 points from 14. Santos Laguna have won all of their last five; Necaxa are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). Necaxa have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Cruz Azul v LeonMon 2 Nov, 01:00

Our model makes Cruz Azul 60%, the draw 20% and Leon 19%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.52 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is Cruz Azul to win at 60%. Cruz Azul are 4th on 23 points from 13; Leon are 5th on 22 points from 14. Cruz Azul have won two of their last five; Leon have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Cruz Azul wins, draws and Leon wins.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.