Liga MX · Review

Liga MX Apertura, round 15 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Liga MX result from Apertura, round 15 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 2 Nov 2026, updated 3 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Liga MX, Apertura, round 15 (31 October – 2 November 2026), is complete: nine matches, 31 goals (3.44 a game), five home wins, two draws and two away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in seven of the nine and both teams scored in six.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Club America v Toluca (2–2), which it had at 23%; the one it rated most likely was Cruz Azul's win in Cruz Azul v Leon (2–1), at 60%.

After the round, Club America lead on goal difference from Guadalajara Chivas, both on 29 points, with Cruz Azul third on 29. The bottom three are Atlante FC (14), Necaxa (10), FC Juarez (8).

Match by match

Atletico San Luis 0–1 AtlasSat 31 Oct, 01:00

Before kick-off the model had Atletico San Luis 43%, the draw 25% and Atlas 32%, with Atletico San Luis favoured; it put Atlas winning at 32%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.05–0.78: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 57%, did not come in. Pick published: Atlas +0.25 at 2.20 — won.

FC Juarez 3–1 Club QueretaroSat 31 Oct, 01:00

Before kick-off the model had FC Juarez 27%, the draw 26% and Club Queretaro 47%, with Club Queretaro favoured; it put FC Juarez winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.46–2.71: Club Queretaro created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Club Queretaro to win at 47%, did not come in. Pick published: FC Juarez -0.5 at 3.05 — won.

Puebla 1–2 U.N.A.M. - PumasSat 31 Oct, 03:00

Before kick-off the model had Puebla 28%, the draw 26% and U.N.A.M. - Pumas 46%, so U.N.A.M. - Pumas winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.34–2.91: U.N.A.M. - Pumas created the better chances. The headline call, U.N.A.M. - Pumas to win at 46%, came in. Pick published: Puebla -0.5 at 2.92 — lost.

CF Pachuca 3–0 Tigres UANLSat 31 Oct, 23:00

Before kick-off the model had CF Pachuca 41%, the draw 28% and Tigres UANL 31%, so CF Pachuca winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.74–0.45: CF Pachuca created the better chances. The headline call, CF Pachuca to win at 41%, came in.

Monterrey 3–3 Club TijuanaSun 1 Nov, 01:05

Before kick-off the model had Monterrey 45%, the draw 25% and Club Tijuana 30%, with Monterrey favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.57–0.74: Monterrey created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 56%, came in.

Guadalajara Chivas 4–2 Atlante FCSun 1 Nov, 01:07

Before kick-off the model had Guadalajara Chivas 59%, the draw 23% and Atlante FC 17%, so Guadalajara Chivas winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 1.64–1.61: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Guadalajara Chivas to win at 59%, came in.

Club America 2–2 TolucaSun 1 Nov, 03:10

Before kick-off the model had Club America 47%, the draw 23% and Toluca 31%, with Club America favoured; it put the draw at 23%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.08–1.94: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 68%, came in. Pick published: Toluca +0.25 at 2.25 — half won.

Santos Laguna 1–0 NecaxaSun 1 Nov, 23:00

Before kick-off the model had Santos Laguna 51%, the draw 24% and Necaxa 25%, so Santos Laguna winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.77–2.53: Necaxa created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Santos Laguna to win at 51%, came in. Pick published: Santos Laguna -0.5 at 1.82 — won.

Cruz Azul 2–1 LeonMon 2 Nov, 01:10

Before kick-off the model had Cruz Azul 60%, the draw 20% and Leon 19%, so Cruz Azul winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 2-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.56–2.20: Leon created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Cruz Azul to win at 60%, came in. Pick published: Cruz Azul -0.25 at 1.48 — won.

The numbers this season

Liga MX has averaged 3.03 goals a game over 134 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 54% of them and both sides scoring in 62%. Home sides have won 38% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 35%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.