Monterrey won 2 of the last 5LDLWW10th3–3Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5LDDWD9th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Monterrey
Club Tijuana
19
Shots
5
7
Shots on target
3
9
Corners
2
6
Fouls
12
3
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
0
609
Passes
260
70%
Possession %
30%
2.57
xG
0.74
45%
25%
30%
1 · MonterreyXClub Tijuana · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
34%
Both score
59%
Model pick
Monterrey 45%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.30
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Monterrey
44.9%
2.23
1.65 Betano
60.6%
-15.7
Match result
Draw
25.3%
3.95
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
+3.1
Match result
Club Tijuana
29.8%
3.36
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
+11.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.7%
1.25
1.22 Betano
82.0%
-2.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
20.3%
4.92
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
+2.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
56.2%
1.78
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-3.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
43.8%
2.28
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+1.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
33.8%
2.96
2.65 Betano
37.7%
-3.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
66.2%
1.51
1.50 Betano
66.7%
-0.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
59.1%
1.69
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
+2.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
40.9%
2.44
2.32 Betano
43.1%
-2.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Monterrey favoured against Club Tijuana
Our model makes Monterrey 45% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 25% and Club Tijuana at 30%. The goal projection is 1.64 for Monterrey against 1.30 for Club Tijuana — a clear edge to Monterrey on expected output. A combined 2.94 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Monterrey
Metric
Club Tijuana
2.20 (better)
Goals scored
1.40
1.60
Goals conceded
1.60
1.20
Expected goals (xG)
1.41 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.75
Shots on target
4.80 (better)
12.25
Total shots
13.20 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.50
Corners
5.80 (better)
53.3 (better)
Possession %
39.4
489 (better)
Passes
295
—
Tackles
—
9.25
Fouls
8.20 (better)
2.50
Offsides
2.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.20
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Monterrey v 
Club Tijuana