Predicted Edge

Cruz Azul v Leon

Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 51st2–1Leon won 1 of the last 57th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Cruz Azul Leon
15Shots16
5Shots on target4
4Corners6
16Fouls11
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards0
3Offsides3
437Passes469
48%Possession %52%
1.56xG2.20
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
47%
Both score
64%
Model pick
Cruz Azul 60%
Likely score
2-1 10%
Expected goals
2.29 – 1.24

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 2 of 5

Cruz Azul -0.25

1.48Bet365 · fair 1.42 · qualifies at 1.46+ · 2.00u
Why this price?

Back Cruz Azul -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.48 with Bet365 — Cruz Azul must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 67% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 73%; we judge it at 70%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.42. The offered 1.48 implies only 68%, so the price is 4.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Cruz Azul 2.29, Leon 1.24.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultCruz Azul60.5%1.651.80 Betano55.6%+4.9
Match resultDraw20.3%4.934.33 Bet36523.1%-2.8
Match resultLeon19.3%5.195.00 Bet36520.0%-0.7
Total goalsOver 1.587.1%1.151.22 Betano82.0%+5.1
Total goalsUnder 1.512.9%7.734.50 Bet36522.2%-9.3
Total goalsOver 2.568.3%1.461.67 Bet36559.9%+8.4
Total goalsUnder 2.531.7%3.162.30 Betano43.5%-11.8
Total goalsOver 3.546.8%2.142.63 Betfair38.0%+8.8
Total goalsUnder 3.553.2%1.881.67 Bet36559.9%-6.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes64.2%1.561.70 Bet36558.8%+5.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No35.8%2.792.45 BetVictor40.8%-5.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Cruz Azul favoured against Leon

Our model makes Cruz Azul 60% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 20% and Leon at 19%. The goal projection is 2.29 for Cruz Azul against 1.24 for Leon — a commanding edge to Cruz Azul on expected output. A combined 3.52 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Cruz Azul is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 40% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
2-1 10%
1-1 9%
2-0 8%
3-1 7%
1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Cruz Azul and Leon
Cruz Azul Leon
16Played16
10-2-4W-D-L6-5-5
2.00Pts / game1.44
2.31Goals for / game1.44
1.63Goals against / game1.31
81%Over 2.538%
75%BTTS69%
13%Clean sheets25%
13%Failed to score6%
5-1-2Home record4-2-2
5-1-2Away record2-3-3
W5StreakD1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cruz Azul · Leon

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.1Shots12.1
6.6Shots on target5.1
4.9Corners3.8
2.57Cards2.91
11.9Fouls12.8
54Possession %47
2.20xG1.67
7 matchessample8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.7Shots16.0
5.3Shots on target5.3
5.9Corners6.5
2.86Cards2.38
12.9Fouls13.1
46Possession %53
1.74xG1.61
7 matchessample8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cruz AzulMetricLeon
2.60 (better)Goals scored1.80
1.40 (better)Goals conceded1.60
2.24 (better)Expected goals (xG)1.58
Big chances
6.75 (better)Shots on target5.00
18.00 (better)Total shots11.80
Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)Corners4.20
57.5 (better)Possession %45.6
461 (better)Passes351
Tackles
11.50 (better)Fouls14.00
2.25Offsides2.20 (better)
Throw-ins
2.25Yellow cards2.20 (better)
0.00 (better)Red cards0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Cruz Azul wins
2
Draws
0
Leon wins
1
Goals / game
3.67
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%
Liga MX table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Cruz Azul161024+1132Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5
2Club America16862+1530Club America won 1 of the last 5
3Guadalajara Chivas16862+1130Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5
4Toluca16763+1427Toluca won 1 of the last 5
5Atlas16835-327Atlas won 3 of the last 5
6Santos Laguna16817+325Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5
7Leon16655+223Leon won 1 of the last 5
8CF Pachuca16646+922CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5
9Club Tijuana16574+322Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5
10Monterrey15636+121Monterrey won 2 of the last 5
11U.N.A.M. - Pumas16565-221U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5
12Club Queretaro15627-520Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 5
13Puebla16547-419Puebla won 1 of the last 5
14Atletico San Luis16547-519Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5
15Tigres UANL16367-815Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5
16Atlante FC16358-1014Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5
17Necaxa16349-1113Necaxa won 1 of the last 5
18FC Juarez163211-2111FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5