CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5WWWLL8th3–0Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5LLDLD15th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
CF Pachuca
Tigres UANL
21
Shots
10
7
Shots on target
2
4
Corners
4
17
Fouls
6
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
1
1
Offsides
0
429
Passes
435
61%
Possession %
39%
2.74
xG
0.45
41%
28%
31%
1 · CF PachucaXTigres UANL · 2
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
26%
Both score
52%
Model pick
CF Pachuca 41%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.18
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 2.5
52.9%
1.89
2.12 Betano
47.2%
+5.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
25.5%
3.92
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
-9.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
74.5%
1.34
1.45 Betano
69.0%
+5.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
52.4%
1.91
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-9.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
47.6%
2.10
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+5.6
Match result
CF Pachuca
41.1%
2.44
2.33 Dafabet
42.9%
-1.9
Match result
Draw
27.7%
3.61
3.60 Bet365
27.8%
-0.1
Match result
Tigres UANL
31.2%
3.20
3.20 Dafabet
31.3%
-0.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
73.1%
1.37
1.25 Betano
80.0%
-6.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
26.9%
3.72
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
+3.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
47.1%
2.12
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
-10.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
CF Pachuca favoured against Tigres UANL
Our model makes CF Pachuca 41% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 28% and Tigres UANL at 31%. The goal projection is 1.38 for CF Pachuca against 1.18 for Tigres UANL — a slight edge to CF Pachuca on expected output. A combined 2.56 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
CF Pachuca
Metric
Tigres UANL
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
2.00
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
1.47 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.44
—
Big chances *
—
5.00
Shots on target
6.00 (better)
16.60 (better)
Total shots
14.60
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.60
Corners
8.20 (better)
51.2 (better)
Possession %
48.8
391
Passes
426 (better)
—
Tackles
—
16.20
Fouls
9.80 (better)
3.00
Offsides
1.60 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
3.20
Yellow cards
0.40 (better)
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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CF Pachuca v 
Tigres UANL