Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5DWWWD3rd4–2Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5LLLWL16th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Guadalajara Chivas
Atlante FC
15
Shots
8
7
Shots on target
4
6
Corners
4
6
Fouls
10
0
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
2
504
Passes
447
53%
Possession %
47%
1.64
xG
1.61
59%
23%
17%
1 · Guadalajara ChivasXAtlante FC · 2
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
30%
Both score
51%
Model pick
Guadalajara Chivas 59%
Likely score
1-0 11%
Expected goals
1.85 – 0.90
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Guadalajara Chivas
59.3%
1.69
1.50 Betano
66.7%
-7.3
Match result
Draw
23.4%
4.27
4.85 Betano
20.6%
+2.8
Match result
Atlante FC
17.3%
5.79
6.70 Betano
14.9%
+2.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
76.6%
1.31
1.20 Betano
83.3%
-6.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
23.4%
4.27
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
+3.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
51.9%
1.93
1.60 Betano
62.5%
-10.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
48.1%
2.08
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
+7.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
29.7%
3.36
2.47 Betano
40.5%
-10.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
70.3%
1.42
1.57 Betano
63.7%
+6.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
50.5%
1.98
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
-6.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
49.5%
2.02
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
+1.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Guadalajara Chivas favoured against Atlante FC
Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas 59% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 23% and Atlante FC at 17%. The goal projection is 1.85 for Guadalajara Chivas against 0.90 for Atlante FC — a commanding edge to Guadalajara Chivas on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-0 11%
1-1 11%
2-0 11%
2-1 10%
0-0 7%
This season
Season records for Guadalajara Chivas and Atlante FC
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Guadalajara Chivas
Metric
Atlante FC
1.00
Goals scored
1.20 (better)
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
1.38 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.17
—
Big chances *
—
4.50
Shots on target
6.80 (better)
19.25 (better)
Total shots
15.40
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
9.50 (better)
Corners
7.20
65.0 (better)
Possession %
46.4
556 (better)
Passes
391
—
Tackles
—
13.50 (better)
Fouls
15.80
2.50
Offsides
1.80 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.75 (better)
Yellow cards
2.40
0.50
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Guadalajara Chivas v 
Atlante FC