Liga MX · Review

Liga MX Apertura, round 14 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Liga MX result from Apertura, round 14 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 26 Oct 2026, updated 27 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Liga MX, Apertura, round 14 (24–26 October 2026), is complete: nine matches, 27 goals (3.00 a game), two home wins, three draws and four away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in four of the nine and both teams scored in seven.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Necaxa v FC Juarez (1–1), which it had at 23%; the one it rated most likely was Club Tijuana's win in Club Tijuana v Santos Laguna (4–1), at 52%.

After the round, Club America lead on 27 points, one point clear of Cruz Azul, with Guadalajara Chivas third on 26. The bottom three are Atlante FC (14), Necaxa (10), FC Juarez (5).

Match by match

Necaxa 1–1 FC JuarezSat 24 Oct, 02:00

Before kick-off the model had Necaxa 50%, the draw 23% and FC Juarez 28%, with Necaxa favoured; it put the draw at 23%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 2.57–1.81: Necaxa created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 67%, did not come in. Pick published: Necaxa -0.5 at 1.83 — lost.

Atlante FC 0–1 Atletico San LuisSat 24 Oct, 04:00

Before kick-off the model had Atlante FC 43%, the draw 25% and Atletico San Luis 32%, with Atlante FC favoured; it put Atletico San Luis winning at 32%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.18–0.62: Atlante FC created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 59%, did not come in.

Leon 1–1 TolucaSun 25 Oct, 00:00

Before kick-off the model had Leon 27%, the draw 24% and Toluca 49%, with Toluca favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.54–1.43: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Toluca to win at 49%, did not come in.

Monterrey 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasSun 25 Oct, 02:00

Before kick-off the model had Monterrey 30%, the draw 25% and Guadalajara Chivas 45%, so Guadalajara Chivas winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.71–1.32: Monterrey created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 58%, did not come in.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–1 Tigres UANLSun 25 Oct, 03:10

Before kick-off the model had U.N.A.M. - Pumas 42%, the draw 26% and Tigres UANL 33%, with U.N.A.M. - Pumas favoured; it put the draw at 26%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 2.27–0.84: U.N.A.M. - Pumas created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 56%, did not come in. Pick published: U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 3.10 — lost.

Atlas 4–3 PueblaSun 25 Oct, 23:00

Before kick-off the model had Atlas 48%, the draw 28% and Puebla 24%, so Atlas winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.38–1.10: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Atlas to win at 48%, came in. Pick published: Atlas -0.5 at 1.75 — won.

Club Queretaro 1–3 Cruz AzulMon 26 Oct, 01:00

Before kick-off the model had Club Queretaro 40%, the draw 26% and Cruz Azul 34%, with Club Queretaro favoured; it put Cruz Azul winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.26–1.73: Cruz Azul created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, came in. Pick published: Club Queretaro at 3.30 — lost.

Club America 1–2 CF PachucaMon 26 Oct, 01:05

Before kick-off the model had Club America 46%, the draw 26% and CF Pachuca 28%, with Club America favoured; it put CF Pachuca winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.78–0.58: Club America created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Club America to win at 46%, did not come in. Pick published: CF Pachuca 0 at 3.45 — won.

Club Tijuana 4–1 Santos LagunaMon 26 Oct, 03:00

Before kick-off the model had Club Tijuana 52%, the draw 25% and Santos Laguna 23%, so Club Tijuana winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.26–0.56: Club Tijuana created the better chances. The headline call, Club Tijuana to win at 52%, came in. Pick published: Club Tijuana -0.25 at 1.65 — won.

The numbers this season

Liga MX has averaged 3.01 goals a game over 124 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 52% of them and both sides scoring in 61%. Home sides have won 37% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 36%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.