Predicted Edge

Club Tijuana v Santos Laguna

Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 59th4–1Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 56th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Club Tijuana Santos Laguna
15Shots12
7Shots on target3
3Corners4
15Fouls8
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
5Offsides0
407Passes577
42%Possession %58%
3.26xG0.56
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
31%
Both score
55%
Model pick
Club Tijuana 52%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.07

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 2 of 5

Club Tijuana -0.25

1.65Bet365 · fair 1.58 · qualifies at 1.62+ · 1.82u
Why this price?

Back Club Tijuana -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.65 with Bet365 — Club Tijuana must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 60% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 66%; we judge it at 63%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.58. The offered 1.65 implies only 61%, so the price is 4.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.82 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Club Tijuana 1.73, Santos Laguna 1.07.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultClub Tijuana52.3%1.912.07 Dafabet48.3%+3.9
Match resultDraw24.9%4.023.80 Betfair26.3%-1.5
Match resultSantos Laguna22.9%4.373.75 Dafabet26.7%-3.8
Total goalsOver 1.577.5%1.291.22 Betano82.0%-4.4
Total goalsUnder 1.522.5%4.454.80 Betfair20.8%+1.6
Total goalsOver 2.553.1%1.881.70 Bet36558.8%-5.7
Total goalsUnder 2.546.9%2.132.30 Betfair43.5%+3.4
Total goalsOver 3.530.9%3.242.63 Betfair38.0%-7.1
Total goalsUnder 3.569.1%1.451.52 Betano65.8%+3.3
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes54.7%1.831.60 Betano62.5%-7.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No45.3%2.212.40 BetVictor41.7%+3.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Club Tijuana favoured against Santos Laguna

Our model makes Club Tijuana 52% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 25% and Santos Laguna at 23%. The goal projection is 1.73 for Club Tijuana against 1.07 for Santos Laguna — a substantial edge to Club Tijuana on expected output. A combined 2.80 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-0 10%
2-1 10%
2-0 9%
0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Club Tijuana and Santos Laguna
Club Tijuana Santos Laguna
16Played16
5-7-4W-D-L8-1-7
1.38Pts / game1.56
1.56Goals for / game1.44
1.38Goals against / game1.25
50%Over 2.550%
63%BTTS38%
25%Clean sheets38%
25%Failed to score31%
5-1-2Home record5-1-2
0-6-2Away record3-0-5
L1StreakW2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Club Tijuana · Santos Laguna

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.1Shots13.6
4.3Shots on target4.9
4.7Corners6.6
2.33Cards2.00
9.8Fouls11.8
39Possession %55
1.44xG1.76
9 matchessample8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.4Shots15.8
6.2Shots on target4.4
8.6Corners4.1
2.22Cards2.13
11.2Fouls11.8
61Possession %45
1.44xG1.67
9 matchessample8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Club TijuanaMetricSantos Laguna
1.00Goals scored2.60 (better)
1.40Goals conceded0.80 (better)
1.50Expected goals (xG)3.30 (better)
Big chances
4.80Shots on target7.60 (better)
15.40Total shots19.00 (better)
Touches in opp. box
7.40 (better)Corners7.00
47.0Possession %52.8 (better)
348Passes457 (better)
Tackles
8.00 (better)Fouls12.60
2.00Offsides2.00
Throw-ins
2.20Yellow cards2.00 (better)
0.00Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Club Tijuana wins
1
Draws
0
Santos Laguna wins
2
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
67%
Both score
67%
Liga MX table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Cruz Azul161024+1132Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5
2Club America16862+1530Club America won 1 of the last 5
3Guadalajara Chivas16862+1130Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5
4Toluca16763+1427Toluca won 1 of the last 5
5Atlas16835-327Atlas won 3 of the last 5
6Santos Laguna16817+325Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5
7Leon16655+223Leon won 1 of the last 5
8CF Pachuca16646+922CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5
9Club Tijuana16574+322Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5
10Monterrey15636+121Monterrey won 2 of the last 5
11U.N.A.M. - Pumas16565-221U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5
12Club Queretaro15627-520Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 5
13Puebla16547-419Puebla won 1 of the last 5
14Atletico San Luis16547-519Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5
15Tigres UANL16367-815Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5
16Atlante FC16358-1014Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5
17Necaxa16349-1113Necaxa won 1 of the last 5
18FC Juarez163211-2111FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5