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Liga MX predictions: Apertura, round 14 (24–26 October 2026)

Every Liga MX match in Apertura, round 14 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 16 Oct 2026, updated 18 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Liga MX, Apertura, round 14: nine matches, played across 24–26 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Club Tijuana, 52% to beat Santos Laguna at home; the most evenly balanced game is Club Queretaro v Cruz Azul (Club Queretaro 40%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul 34%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Necaxa v FC Juarez, at 3.48; the tightest looks Atlas v Puebla, at 2.45.

Going into the round, Club America lead on 24 points, three points clear of Toluca, with Atlas third on 21. The bottom three are Atlante FC (11), Necaxa (9), FC Juarez (4).

The numbers this season

Liga MX has averaged 3.00 goals a game over 105 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 52% of them and both sides scoring in 60%. Home sides have won 38% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 34%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Necaxa v FC JuarezSat 24 Oct, 02:00

Our model makes Necaxa 50%, the draw 23% and FC Juarez 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.48 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 67%. Necaxa are 17th on 9 points from 12; FC Juarez are 18th on 4 points from 12. Necaxa are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); FC Juarez have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Atlante FC v Atletico San LuisSat 24 Oct, 04:00

Our model makes Atlante FC 43%, the draw 25% and Atletico San Luis 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.05 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 59%. Atlante FC are 16th on 11 points from 12; Atletico San Luis are 15th on 13 points from 12. Atlante FC have won one of their last five; Atletico San Luis have won two of their last five.

Leon v TolucaSun 25 Oct, 00:00

Our model makes Leon 27%, the draw 24% and Toluca 49%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.09 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Toluca to win at 49%. Leon are 7th on 18 points from 12; Toluca are 2nd on 21 points from 12. Leon have won two of their last five; Toluca have won one of their last five. Toluca have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Monterrey v Guadalajara ChivasSun 25 Oct, 01:00

Our model makes Monterrey 30%, the draw 25% and Guadalajara Chivas 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.04 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 58%. Monterrey are 12th on 14 points from 10; Guadalajara Chivas are 4th on 20 points from 12. Monterrey have won one of their last five; Guadalajara Chivas have won one of their last five. Guadalajara Chivas have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Tigres UANLSun 25 Oct, 03:00

Our model makes U.N.A.M. - Pumas 42%, the draw 26% and Tigres UANL 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.93 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 56%. U.N.A.M. - Pumas are 10th on 16 points from 12; Tigres UANL are 13th on 14 points from 12. U.N.A.M. - Pumas have won one of their last five; Tigres UANL have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Atlas v PueblaSun 25 Oct, 23:00

Our model makes Atlas 48%, the draw 28% and Puebla 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.45 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is Atlas to win at 48%. Atlas are 3rd on 21 points from 12; Puebla are 11th on 16 points from 12. Atlas have won two of their last five; Puebla are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats). Atlas have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Club America v CF PachucaSun 25 Oct, 23:00

Our model makes Club America 46%, the draw 26% and CF Pachuca 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.81 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is Club America to win at 46%. Club America are 1st on 24 points from 11; CF Pachuca are 14th on 13 points from 11. Club America have won two of their last five; CF Pachuca have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Club Queretaro v Cruz AzulMon 26 Oct, 01:00

Our model makes Club Queretaro 40%, the draw 26% and Cruz Azul 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.80 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Club Queretaro are 6th on 20 points from 11; Cruz Azul are 5th on 20 points from 12. Club Queretaro have won three of their last five; Cruz Azul have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.

Club Tijuana v Santos LagunaMon 26 Oct, 03:00

Our model makes Club Tijuana 52%, the draw 25% and Santos Laguna 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.80 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Club Tijuana to win at 52%. Club Tijuana are 9th on 16 points from 11; Santos Laguna are 8th on 16 points from 12. Club Tijuana are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Santos Laguna have won all of their last five. Santos Laguna have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.