Predicted Edge

Club Queretaro v Cruz Azul

Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 512th1–3Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 51st

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Club Queretaro Cruz Azul
10Shots14
4Shots on target7
8Corners6
12Fouls8
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
0Offsides2
425Passes486
48%Possession %52%
1.26xG1.73
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
31%
Both score
57%
Model pick
Club Queretaro 40%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.33

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Club Queretaro

3.30Marathonbet · fair 3.02 · qualifies at 3.11+ · 1.01u
Why this price?

Back Club Queretaro to win at 3.30 with Marathonbet.

Our model puts the chance at 40% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 29%; we judge it at 33%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.02. The offered 3.30 implies only 30%, so the price is 9.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.01 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Club Queretaro 1.47, Cruz Azul 1.33.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultClub Queretaro39.8%2.513.70 Betano27.0%+12.8
Match resultDraw26.4%3.793.80 Bet36526.3%+0.1
Match resultCruz Azul33.8%2.962.02 Betano49.5%-15.7
Total goalsOver 1.577.5%1.291.22 Bet36582.0%-4.4
Total goalsUnder 1.522.5%4.454.50 Bet36522.2%+0.3
Total goalsOver 2.553.1%1.881.75 Bet36557.1%-4.0
Total goalsUnder 2.546.9%2.132.22 Betano45.0%+1.9
Total goalsOver 3.530.9%3.242.65 Betano37.7%-6.9
Total goalsUnder 3.569.2%1.451.50 Bet36566.7%+2.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes57.3%1.751.62 Bet36561.7%-4.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No42.7%2.342.38 Betfair42.0%+0.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Club Queretaro v Cruz Azul: too close to call

Our model makes Club Queretaro 40% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 26% and Cruz Azul at 34%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Club Queretaro against 1.33 for Cruz Azul — a slight edge to Club Queretaro on expected output. A combined 2.80 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-0 8%
1-2 8%
0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Club Queretaro and Cruz Azul
Club Queretaro Cruz Azul
15Played16
6-2-7W-D-L10-2-4
1.33Pts / game2.00
1.20Goals for / game2.31
1.53Goals against / game1.63
53%Over 2.581%
53%BTTS75%
27%Clean sheets13%
27%Failed to score13%
2-1-4Home record5-1-2
4-1-3Away record5-1-2
L5StreakW5

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Club Queretaro · Cruz Azul

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.8Shots17.1
4.3Shots on target6.6
6.3Corners4.9
2.02Cards2.57
10.5Fouls11.9
45Possession %54
1.65xG2.20
8 matchessample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.1Shots13.7
5.6Shots on target5.3
4.8Corners5.9
1.77Cards2.86
9.9Fouls12.9
55Possession %46
1.80xG1.74
8 matchessample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Club QueretaroMetricCruz Azul
1.20Goals scored2.20 (better)
1.20 (better)Goals conceded1.40
1.54Expected goals (xG)2.39 (better)
Big chances
3.80Shots on target6.50 (better)
13.40Total shots18.75 (better)
Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)Corners4.00
37.8Possession %56.8 (better)
325Passes459 (better)
Tackles
10.80 (better)Fouls12.25
1.60 (better)Offsides2.50
Throw-ins
2.80Yellow cards2.00 (better)
0.33Red cards0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Club Queretaro wins
0
Draws
2
Cruz Azul wins
1
Goals / game
3.33
Over 2.5
67%
Both score
100%
Liga MX table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Cruz Azul161024+1132Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5
2Club America16862+1530Club America won 1 of the last 5
3Guadalajara Chivas16862+1130Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5
4Toluca16763+1427Toluca won 1 of the last 5
5Atlas16835-327Atlas won 3 of the last 5
6Santos Laguna16817+325Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5
7Leon16655+223Leon won 1 of the last 5
8CF Pachuca16646+922CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5
9Club Tijuana16574+322Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5
10Monterrey15636+121Monterrey won 2 of the last 5
11U.N.A.M. - Pumas16565-221U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5
12Club Queretaro15627-520Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 5
13Puebla16547-419Puebla won 1 of the last 5
14Atletico San Luis16547-519Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5
15Tigres UANL16367-815Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5
16Atlante FC16358-1014Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5
17Necaxa16349-1113Necaxa won 1 of the last 5
18FC Juarez163211-2111FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5