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Liga MX predictions: Apertura, round 16 (7–9 November 2026)

Every Liga MX match in Apertura, round 16 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 30 Oct 2026, updated 1 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Liga MX, Apertura, round 16: nine matches, played across 7–9 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Atletico San Luis, 58% to beat FC Juarez at home; the most evenly balanced game is U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Club America (U.N.A.M. - Pumas 38%, draw 24%, Club America 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Club America, at 3.42; the tightest looks Club Queretaro v Puebla, at 2.57.

Going into the round, Club America lead on goal difference from Guadalajara Chivas, both on 29 points, with Atlas third on 27. The bottom three are Atlante FC (14), Necaxa (10), FC Juarez (8).

The numbers this season

Liga MX has averaged 3.05 goals a game over 132 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 54% of them and both sides scoring in 62%. Home sides have won 37% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 36%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Atletico San Luis v FC JuarezSat 7 Nov, 01:00

Our model makes Atletico San Luis 58%, the draw 22% and FC Juarez 20%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.27 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Atletico San Luis to win at 58%. Atletico San Luis are 13th on 19 points from 15; FC Juarez are 18th on 8 points from 15. Atletico San Luis have won two of their last five; FC Juarez have won one of their last five. FC Juarez have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Necaxa v Club TijuanaSat 7 Nov, 01:00

Our model makes Necaxa 29%, the draw 26% and Club Tijuana 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Club Tijuana to win at 45%. Necaxa are 17th on 10 points from 14; Club Tijuana are 6th on 22 points from 15. Necaxa are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Club Tijuana are unbeaten in five (one win, four draws). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Necaxa wins, draws and Club Tijuana wins.

Atlante FC v Santos LagunaSat 7 Nov, 03:00

Our model makes Atlante FC 38%, the draw 27% and Santos Laguna 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.73 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is both teams to score at 56%. Atlante FC are 16th on 14 points from 15; Santos Laguna are 12th on 19 points from 14. Atlante FC have won one of their last five; Santos Laguna have won four of their last five.

Atlas v CF PachucaSat 7 Nov, 23:00

Our model makes Atlas 35%, the draw 27% and CF Pachuca 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.77 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Atlas are 3rd on 27 points from 15; CF Pachuca are 11th on 19 points from 15. Atlas have won three of their last five; CF Pachuca have won two of their last five. CF Pachuca have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Tigres UANL v Cruz AzulSat 7 Nov, 23:00

Our model makes Tigres UANL 34%, the draw 25% and Cruz Azul 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.02 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 58%. Tigres UANL are 15th on 15 points from 15; Cruz Azul are 4th on 26 points from 14. Tigres UANL have won one of their last five; Cruz Azul are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). Three of the sides' last four meetings were drawn.

Toluca v MonterreySun 8 Nov, 01:00

Our model makes Toluca 50%, the draw 24% and Monterrey 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.14 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is Toluca to win at 50%. Toluca are 5th on 24 points from 15; Monterrey are 8th on 21 points from 14. Toluca are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat); Monterrey have won two of their last five. Toluca have won three of the sides' last four meetings.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Club AmericaSun 8 Nov, 03:00

Our model makes U.N.A.M. - Pumas 38%, the draw 24% and Club America 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.42 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 66%. U.N.A.M. - Pumas are 9th on 20 points from 15; Club America are 1st on 29 points from 15. U.N.A.M. - Pumas have won two of their last five; Club America have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last four meetings were drawn.

Club Queretaro v PueblaMon 9 Nov, 00:00

Our model makes Club Queretaro 47%, the draw 27% and Puebla 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.57 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Club Queretaro to win at 47%. Club Queretaro are 10th on 20 points from 14; Puebla are 14th on 16 points from 15. Club Queretaro have won one of their last five; Puebla are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). Club Queretaro have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Leon v Guadalajara ChivasMon 9 Nov, 02:00

Our model makes Leon 25%, the draw 25% and Guadalajara Chivas 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.93 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Guadalajara Chivas to win at 50%. Leon are 7th on 22 points from 14; Guadalajara Chivas are 2nd on 29 points from 15. Leon have won two of their last five; Guadalajara Chivas are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Leon wins, draws and Guadalajara Chivas wins.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published three picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.