Atlas v CF Pachuca

5th1–48th

23:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Atlas		CF Pachuca
11	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	8
7	Corners	5
12	Fouls	15
3	Yellow cards	1
1	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	0
455	Passes	236
66%	Possession %	34%
1.26	xG	1.91

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: CF Pachuca 38%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.41

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Atlas	35.4%	2.83	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	-2.8
Match result	Draw	26.7%	3.75	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-1.1
Match result	CF Pachuca	38.0%	2.63	3.05 Dafabet	32.8%	+5.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.9%	1.30	1.23 Betano	81.3%	-4.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.1%	4.33	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+0.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.2%	1.92	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-6.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.8%	2.09	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	+3.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.0%	3.33	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	-7.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.0%	1.43	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.7%	1.76	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-7.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.3%	2.31	2.40 Betfair	41.7%	+1.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Atlas v CF Pachuca: too close to call

Our model makes Atlas 35% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 27% and CF Pachuca at 38%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Atlas against 1.41 for CF Pachuca — almost nothing to CF Pachuca on expected output. A combined 2.77 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-2 8%; 0-1 8%; 2-1 8%; 1-0 8%

This season

Season records for Atlas and CF Pachuca
Atlas		CF Pachuca
16	Played	16
8-3-5	W-D-L	6-4-6
1.69	Pts / game	1.38
1.69	Goals for / game	1.81
1.88	Goals against / game	1.25
50%	Over 2.5	69%
69%	BTTS	63%
25%	Clean sheets	25%
6%	Failed to score	13%
2-3-4	Home record	1-3-3
6-0-1	Away record	5-1-3
L1	Streak	W3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Atlas · CF Pachuca

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.4	Shots	17.0
4.7	Shots on target	5.5
7.3	Corners	5.3
2.29	Cards	2.63
13.1	Fouls	16.1
55	Possession %	49
1.64	xG	1.41
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.0	Shots	12.9
5.0	Shots on target	5.8
6.0	Corners	5.1
1.71	Cards	2.88
13.1	Fouls	11.0
45	Possession %	51
1.75	xG	1.90
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Atlas	Metric	CF Pachuca
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
1.80	Goals conceded	1.80
1.55 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.93
	Big chances
4.20 (better)	Shots on target	3.60
13.60	Total shots	14.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.60 (better)	Corners	4.60
49.2 (better)	Possession %	47.8
395 (better)	Passes	381
	Tackles
13.40 (better)	Fouls	16.20
1.00 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	3.40
0.20	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Atlas wins: 0
Draws: 0
CF Pachuca wins: 3
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Atlas v CF Pachuca1–42026-11-07
CF Pachuca v Atlas3–12026-02-14
Atlas v CF Pachuca0–32025-08-10

Liga MX table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Cruz Azul	16	10	2	4	+11	32	Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5
2	Club America	16	8	6	2	+15	30	Club America won 1 of the last 5
3	Guadalajara Chivas	16	8	6	2	+11	30	Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5
4	Toluca	16	7	6	3	+14	27	Toluca won 1 of the last 5
5	Atlas	16	8	3	5	-3	27	Atlas won 3 of the last 5
6	Santos Laguna	16	8	1	7	+3	25	Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5
7	Leon	16	6	5	5	+2	23	Leon won 1 of the last 5
8	CF Pachuca	16	6	4	6	+9	22	CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5
9	Club Tijuana	16	5	7	4	+3	22	Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5
10	Monterrey	15	6	3	6	+1	21	Monterrey won 2 of the last 5
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	16	5	6	5	-2	21	U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5
12	Club Queretaro	15	6	2	7	-5	20	Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 5
13	Puebla	16	5	4	7	-4	19	Puebla won 1 of the last 5
14	Atletico San Luis	16	5	4	7	-5	19	Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5
15	Tigres UANL	16	3	6	7	-8	15	Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5
16	Atlante FC	16	3	5	8	-10	14	Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5
17	Necaxa	16	3	4	9	-11	13	Necaxa won 1 of the last 5
18	FC Juarez	16	3	2	11	-21	11	FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5