Tigres UANL v Cruz Azul

15th2–31st

01:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Tigres UANL		Cruz Azul
19	Shots	18
8	Shots on target	7
10	Corners	4
13	Fouls	13
3	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
462	Passes	401
55%	Possession %	45%
3.17	xG	2.38

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Cruz Azul 41%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.43 – 1.60

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Tigres UANL	33.7%	2.96	3.60 Bet365	27.8%	+5.9
Match result	Draw	25.2%	3.97	3.75 Dafabet	26.7%	-1.5
Match result	Cruz Azul	41.1%	2.44	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	-3.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.0%	1.24	1.22 Betano	82.0%	-1.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.0%	5.26	4.80 Betfair	20.8%	-1.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.2%	1.72	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-0.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.8%	2.39	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-2.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.8%	2.79	2.65 Betano	37.7%	-1.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.2%	1.56	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-2.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.2%	1.64	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-2.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.8%	2.58	2.40 Betfair	41.7%	-2.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Cruz Azul favoured against Tigres UANL

Our model makes Tigres UANL 34% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 25% and Cruz Azul at 41%. The goal projection is 1.43 for Tigres UANL against 1.60 for Cruz Azul — a slight edge to Cruz Azul on expected output. A combined 3.02 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul
Tigres UANL		Cruz Azul
16	Played	16
3-6-7	W-D-L	10-2-4
0.94	Pts / game	2.00
1.06	Goals for / game	2.31
1.56	Goals against / game	1.63
44%	Over 2.5	81%
56%	BTTS	75%
25%	Clean sheets	13%
31%	Failed to score	13%
3-2-2	Home record	5-1-2
0-4-5	Away record	5-1-2
L2	Streak	W5

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Tigres UANL · Cruz Azul

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.6	Shots	17.1
6.1	Shots on target	6.6
6.9	Corners	4.9
1.43	Cards	2.57
9.4	Fouls	11.9
48	Possession %	54
1.45	xG	2.20
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.7	Shots	13.7
5.3	Shots on target	5.3
4.9	Corners	5.9
2.43	Cards	2.86
15.6	Fouls	12.9
52	Possession %	46
2.11	xG	1.74
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Tigres UANL	Metric	Cruz Azul
1.20	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
1.20	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.23	Expected goals (xG)	2.29 (better)
	Big chances
6.60	Shots on target	6.75 (better)
14.80	Total shots	17.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.80 (better)	Corners	5.50
48.6	Possession %	58.3 (better)
428	Passes	501 (better)
	Tackles
9.60 (better)	Fouls	10.25
1.60 (better)	Offsides	1.75
	Throw-ins
0.80 (better)	Yellow cards	1.50
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Tigres UANL wins: 0
Draws: 3
Cruz Azul wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.80
Over 2.5: 40%
Both score: 100%

Tigres UANL v Cruz Azul2–32026-11-08
Cruz Azul v Tigres UANL2–12026-02-15
Tigres UANL v Cruz Azul1–12025-12-07
Cruz Azul v Tigres UANL1–12025-12-04
Tigres UANL v Cruz Azul1–12025-10-05

Liga MX table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Cruz Azul	16	10	2	4	+11	32	Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5
2	Club America	16	8	6	2	+15	30	Club America won 1 of the last 5
3	Guadalajara Chivas	16	8	6	2	+11	30	Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5
4	Toluca	16	7	6	3	+14	27	Toluca won 1 of the last 5
5	Atlas	16	8	3	5	-3	27	Atlas won 3 of the last 5
6	Santos Laguna	16	8	1	7	+3	25	Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5
7	Leon	16	6	5	5	+2	23	Leon won 1 of the last 5
8	CF Pachuca	16	6	4	6	+9	22	CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5
9	Club Tijuana	16	5	7	4	+3	22	Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5
10	Monterrey	15	6	3	6	+1	21	Monterrey won 2 of the last 5
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	16	5	6	5	-2	21	U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5
12	Club Queretaro	15	6	2	7	-5	20	Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 5
13	Puebla	16	5	4	7	-4	19	Puebla won 1 of the last 5
14	Atletico San Luis	16	5	4	7	-5	19	Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5
15	Tigres UANL	16	3	6	7	-8	15	Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5
16	Atlante FC	16	3	5	8	-10	14	Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5
17	Necaxa	16	3	4	9	-11	13	Necaxa won 1 of the last 5
18	FC Juarez	16	3	2	11	-21	11	FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5