Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5LLLWL16th0–2Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5WWLWW6th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Atlante FC
Santos Laguna
18
Shots
12
5
Shots on target
3
3
Corners
6
13
Fouls
10
0
Yellow cards
2
2
Red cards
0
4
Offsides
1
299
Passes
654
31%
Possession %
69%
1.66
xG
0.71
38%
27%
35%
1 · Atlante FCXSantos Laguna · 2
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
29%
Both score
56%
Model pick
Atlante FC 38%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.34
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Atlante FC
37.8%
2.65
2.21 Dafabet
45.2%
-7.5
Match result
Draw
26.9%
3.72
3.75 Betano
26.7%
+0.2
Match result
Santos Laguna
35.4%
2.83
3.20 Bet365
31.3%
+4.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
76.3%
1.31
1.20 Betano
83.3%
-7.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
23.7%
4.21
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
+3.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
51.3%
1.95
1.60 Bet365
62.5%
-11.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
48.7%
2.06
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
+7.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
29.2%
3.42
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-10.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
70.8%
1.41
1.57 Betano
63.7%
+7.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
56.0%
1.78
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
-9.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
44.0%
2.27
2.55 BetVictor
39.2%
+4.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Atlante FC v Santos Laguna: too close to call
Our model makes Atlante FC 38% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 27% and Santos Laguna at 35%. The goal projection is 1.39 for Atlante FC against 1.34 for Santos Laguna — almost nothing to Atlante FC on expected output. A combined 2.73 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Atlante FC
Metric
Santos Laguna
1.20
Goals scored
2.20 (better)
1.40
Goals conceded
1.00 (better)
1.15
Expected goals (xG)
2.23 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
6.80 (better)
Shots on target
5.40
15.40 (better)
Total shots
13.80
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.20 (better)
Corners
5.60
46.4
Possession %
56.0 (better)
392
Passes
514 (better)
—
Tackles
—
15.80
Fouls
12.00 (better)
1.80
Offsides
1.60 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.40
Yellow cards
2.40
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Atlante FC v 
Santos Laguna