U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5DWDLW11th2–2Club America won 1 of the last 5DDDLW2nd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Club America
16
Shots
12
3
Shots on target
2
4
Corners
2
18
Fouls
14
6
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
4
286
Passes
547
46%
Possession %
54%
1.61
xG
1.85
38%
24%
38%
1 · U.N.A.M. - PumasXClub America · 2
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
45%
Both score
68%
Model pick
Club America 38%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.71
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 1.5
14.0%
7.13
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
-6.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
66.3%
1.51
1.70 Betano
58.8%
+7.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
33.7%
2.97
2.35 Bet365
42.6%
-8.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
44.5%
2.25
2.67 Betano
37.5%
+7.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
55.5%
1.80
1.52 Betano
65.8%
-10.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
67.5%
1.48
1.55 Betano
64.5%
+3.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
32.5%
3.08
2.55 BetVictor
39.2%
-6.7
Match result
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
38.1%
2.62
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
+8.7
Match result
Draw
23.5%
4.25
3.70 Betfair
27.0%
-3.5
Match result
Club America
38.4%
2.61
2.23 Dafabet
44.8%
-6.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.0%
1.16
1.22 Betano
82.0%
+4.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Club America: too close to call
Our model makes U.N.A.M. - Pumas 38% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 24% and Club America at 38%. The goal projection is 1.71 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas against 1.71 for Club America — almost nothing to Club America on expected output. A combined 3.42 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
1-2 8%
2-1 8%
2-2 7%
0-1 5%
This season
Season records for U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Club America
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Metric
Club America
1.60
Goals scored
2.60 (better)
1.60 (better)
Goals conceded
1.80
1.56
Expected goals (xG)
2.04 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.20
Shots on target
8.00 (better)
9.40
Total shots
18.40 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.20
Corners
5.60 (better)
40.8
Possession %
55.8 (better)
346
Passes
439 (better)
—
Tackles
—
9.40 (better)
Fouls
16.00
1.00
Offsides
0.50 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
2.00
0.40
Red cards
0.25 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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U.N.A.M. - Pumas v 
Club America