Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5LLWWD14th0–1FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5WWDLL18th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Atletico San Luis
FC Juarez
18
Shots
15
8
Shots on target
4
8
Corners
3
9
Fouls
22
2
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
0
504
Passes
341
59%
Possession %
41%
1.01
xG
1.48
58%
22%
20%
1 · Atletico San LuisXFC Juarez · 2
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
41%
Both score
61%
Model pick
Atletico San Luis 58%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.17
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Atletico San Luis
58.3%
1.72
1.76 Dafabet
56.8%
+1.5
Match result
Draw
21.6%
4.62
4.20 Dafabet
23.8%
-2.2
Match result
FC Juarez
20.1%
4.98
5.25 Bet365
19.0%
+1.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
84.2%
1.19
1.25 Betano
80.0%
+4.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
15.8%
6.33
4.33 Bet365
23.1%
-7.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
63.4%
1.58
1.75 Betano
57.1%
+6.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
36.6%
2.73
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-9.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
41.2%
2.43
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
+6.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
58.8%
1.70
1.45 Betano
69.0%
-10.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
60.9%
1.64
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
+3.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
39.1%
2.56
2.12 Betano
47.2%
-8.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Atletico San Luis favoured against FC Juarez
Our model makes Atletico San Luis 58% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 22% and FC Juarez at 20%. The goal projection is 2.10 for Atletico San Luis against 1.17 for FC Juarez — a commanding edge to Atletico San Luis on expected output. A combined 3.27 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 10%
2-0 8%
1-0 8%
3-1 7%
This season
Season records for Atletico San Luis and FC Juarez
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Atletico San Luis
Metric
FC Juarez
1.60 (better)
Goals scored
0.60
1.20 (better)
Goals conceded
2.00
1.28 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.15
—
Big chances *
—
4.60 (better)
Shots on target
3.20
12.20 (better)
Total shots
12.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.40
Corners
6.80 (better)
51.6 (better)
Possession %
51.2
456 (better)
Passes
413
—
Tackles
—
8.80 (better)
Fouls
13.80
2.20
Offsides
0.60 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.75 (better)
Yellow cards
3.40
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Atletico San Luis v 
FC Juarez