Predicted Edge

Toluca v Monterrey

Toluca won 1 of the last 54th4–0Monterrey won 2 of the last 510th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Toluca Monterrey
10Shots7
7Shots on target2
6Corners6
9Fouls12
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards1
2Offsides1
496Passes299
62%Possession %38%
1.11xG0.42
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
39%
Both score
62%
Model pick
Toluca 50%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.30

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Toluca -0.75

1.81BetVictor · fair 1.64 · qualifies at 1.69+ · 2.00u
Why this price?

Back Toluca -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.81 with BetVictor — Toluca must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 43% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 73%; we judge it at 61%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.64. The offered 1.81 implies only 55%, so the price is 10.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Toluca 1.84, Monterrey 1.30.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Total goalsUnder 1.517.3%5.776.50 BetVictor15.4%+2.0
Total goalsOver 2.560.8%1.641.50 Betano66.7%-5.8
Total goalsUnder 2.539.2%2.552.87 Betano34.8%+4.3
Total goalsOver 3.538.5%2.602.18 Betano45.9%-7.4
Total goalsUnder 3.561.5%1.631.73 Bet36557.8%+3.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes61.8%1.621.50 Bet36566.7%-4.9
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No38.2%2.622.60 Betfair38.5%-0.2
Match resultToluca49.6%2.021.72 Betano58.1%-8.6
Match resultDraw23.8%4.204.50 Dafabet22.2%+1.6
Match resultMonterrey26.6%3.765.00 Bet36520.0%+6.6
Total goalsOver 1.582.7%1.211.16 Betano86.2%-3.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Toluca favoured against Monterrey

Our model makes Toluca 50% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 24% and Monterrey at 27%. The goal projection is 1.84 for Toluca against 1.30 for Monterrey — a substantial edge to Toluca on expected output. A combined 3.14 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 10%
1-0 7%
2-0 7%
1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Toluca and Monterrey
Toluca Monterrey
16Played15
7-6-3W-D-L6-3-6
1.69Pts / game1.40
2.19Goals for / game1.73
1.31Goals against / game1.67
69%Over 2.560%
69%BTTS60%
31%Clean sheets20%
6%Failed to score27%
4-2-2Home record4-2-2
3-4-1Away record2-1-4
W1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Toluca · Monterrey

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.1Shots12.1
6.3Shots on target4.7
8.3Corners6.4
1.63Cards2.86
13.4Fouls10.1
58Possession %55
1.34xG1.39
8 matchessample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.9Shots11.0
5.6Shots on target5.6
4.8Corners4.1
2.38Cards1.43
13.1Fouls10.3
42Possession %45
1.22xG1.09
8 matchessample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
TolucaMetricMonterrey
1.40Goals scored1.80 (better)
1.80Goals conceded1.00 (better)
1.86 (better)Expected goals (xG)1.46
Big chances
6.25 (better)Shots on target4.25
23.50 (better)Total shots10.50
Touches in opp. box
11.25 (better)Corners6.00
65.5 (better)Possession %53.8
579 (better)Passes476
Tackles
13.75Fouls11.00 (better)
3.25Offsides2.00 (better)
Throw-ins
1.75 (better)Yellow cards2.00
0.33 (better)Red cards0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Toluca wins
4
Draws
0
Monterrey wins
1
Goals / game
3.80
Over 2.5
60%
Both score
40%
Liga MX table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Cruz Azul161024+1132Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5
2Club America16862+1530Club America won 1 of the last 5
3Guadalajara Chivas16862+1130Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5
4Toluca16763+1427Toluca won 1 of the last 5
5Atlas16835-327Atlas won 3 of the last 5
6Santos Laguna16817+325Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5
7Leon16655+223Leon won 1 of the last 5
8CF Pachuca16646+922CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5
9Club Tijuana16574+322Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5
10Monterrey15636+121Monterrey won 2 of the last 5
11U.N.A.M. - Pumas16565-221U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5
12Club Queretaro15627-520Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 5
13Puebla16547-419Puebla won 1 of the last 5
14Atletico San Luis16547-519Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5
15Tigres UANL16367-815Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5
16Atlante FC16358-1014Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5
17Necaxa16349-1113Necaxa won 1 of the last 5
18FC Juarez163211-2111FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5