Liga MX · Review

Liga MX Apertura, round 13 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Liga MX result from Apertura, round 13 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 22 Oct 2026, updated 23 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Liga MX, Apertura, round 13 (21–22 October 2026), is complete: nine matches, 28 goals (3.11 a game), three home wins, one draw and five away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the nine and both teams scored in five.

The result the model rated least likely was Leon's win in Tigres UANL v Leon (0–2), which it had at 22%; the one it rated most likely was Guadalajara Chivas's win in Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa (1–0), at 67%.

After the round, Club America lead on 27 points, four points clear of Guadalajara Chivas, with Cruz Azul third on 23. The bottom three are CF Pachuca (13), Necaxa (9), FC Juarez (4).

Match by match

Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 NecaxaWed 21 Oct, 01:07

Before kick-off the model had Guadalajara Chivas 67%, the draw 19% and Necaxa 14%, so Guadalajara Chivas winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 0.76–0.58: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Guadalajara Chivas to win at 67%, came in. Pick published: Guadalajara Chivas -0.5 at 1.40 — won.

Atletico San Luis 2–1 Club QueretaroWed 21 Oct, 02:00

Before kick-off the model had Atletico San Luis 33%, the draw 27% and Club Queretaro 40%, with Club Queretaro favoured; it put Atletico San Luis winning at 33%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.45–1.07: Atletico San Luis created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 56%, came in. Pick published: Club Queretaro 0 at 2.27 — lost.

FC Juarez 0–1 Atlante FCWed 21 Oct, 02:00

Before kick-off the model had FC Juarez 36%, the draw 25% and Atlante FC 39%, so Atlante FC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.42–0.77: Atlante FC created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 60%, did not come in. Pick published: Atlante FC +0.25 at 2.01 (free pick) — won.

Tigres UANL 0–2 LeonWed 21 Oct, 04:00

Before kick-off the model had Tigres UANL 53%, the draw 25% and Leon 22%, with Tigres UANL favoured; it put Leon winning at 22%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.93–2.32: Leon created the better chances. The headline call, Tigres UANL to win at 53%, did not come in. Pick published: Tigres UANL -0.5 at 1.74 — lost.

Atlas 2–5 Club AmericaThu 22 Oct, 02:00

Before kick-off the model had Atlas 32%, the draw 26% and Club America 42%, so Club America winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.52–2.46: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 58%, came in. Pick published: Atlas -0.5 at 3.05 (free pick) — lost.

Puebla 1–4 MonterreyThu 22 Oct, 02:00

Before kick-off the model had Puebla 34%, the draw 27% and Monterrey 39%, so Monterrey winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.19–1.46: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 56%, came in. Pick published: Monterrey +0.25 at 1.75 — won.

Toluca 2–2 Club TijuanaThu 22 Oct, 02:00

Before kick-off the model had Toluca 54%, the draw 23% and Club Tijuana 23%, with Toluca favoured; it put the draw at 23%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.24–1.44: Toluca created the better chances. The headline call, Toluca to win at 54%, did not come in.

CF Pachuca 1–2 Cruz AzulThu 22 Oct, 04:10

Before kick-off the model had CF Pachuca 41%, the draw 25% and Cruz Azul 33%, with CF Pachuca favoured; it put Cruz Azul winning at 33%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.16–1.86: Cruz Azul created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 57%, came in. Pick published: CF Pachuca -0.25 at 2.38 — lost.

Santos Laguna 2–0 U.N.A.M. - PumasThu 22 Oct, 04:10

Before kick-off the model had Santos Laguna 31%, the draw 25% and U.N.A.M. - Pumas 45%, with U.N.A.M. - Pumas favoured; it put Santos Laguna winning at 31%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.88–0.22: Santos Laguna created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 60%, did not come in. Pick published: U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 2.88 — lost.

The numbers this season

Liga MX has averaged 3.01 goals a game over 115 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 53% of them and both sides scoring in 60%. Home sides have won 38% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 36%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.