Puebla v 
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Match statistics
| Puebla | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 420 | Passes | 374 |
| 53% | Possession % | 47% |
| 1.34 | xG | 2.91 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas 46%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.19 – 1.57
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Puebla -0.5
Why this price?
Back Puebla -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.92 with Betano — Puebla must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 28% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 45%; we judge it at 38%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.61. The offered 2.92 implies only 34%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.54 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Puebla 1.19, U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1.57.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 45.5% | 2.20 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | +7.5 |
| Match result | Puebla | 28.3% | 3.53 | 3.70 Bet365 | 27.0% | +1.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.2% | 3.82 | 3.65 Dafabet | 27.4% | -1.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 1.26 Betano | 79.4% | -2.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 23.2% | 4.31 | 4.10 Betfair | 24.4% | -1.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1.82 Betano | 54.9% | -2.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 47.9% | 2.09 | 2.07 Betano | 48.3% | -0.4 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 29.9% | 3.34 | 2.95 Betano | 33.9% | -4.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | 1.42 Betano | 70.4% | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 55.7% | 1.80 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -4.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 44.3% | 2.26 | 2.30 Betano | 43.5% | +0.8 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas favoured against Puebla
Our model makes Puebla 28% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 26% and U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 46%. The goal projection is 1.19 for Puebla against 1.57 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas — a clear edge to U.N.A.M. - Pumas on expected output. A combined 2.76 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 0-1 9%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-2 8%
- 2-1 7%
This season
| Puebla | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Played | 16 |
| 5-4-7 | W-D-L | 5-6-5 |
| 1.19 | Pts / game | 1.31 |
| 1.19 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 1.44 | Goals against / game | 1.63 |
| 38% | Over 2.5 | 63% |
| 56% | BTTS | 69% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 6% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 31% |
| 1-3-3 | Home record | 1-5-2 |
| 4-1-4 | Away record | 4-1-3 |
| W1 | Streak | D1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Puebla · U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.1 | Shots | 11.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.9 | Shots on target | 3.7 |
| 3.0 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 1.29 | Cards | 2.29 |
| 9.4 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 46 | Possession % | 43 |
| 1.01 | xG | 1.60 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 15.7 | Shots | 15.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 5.1 |
| 7.3 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.57 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 7.6 | Fouls | 12.4 |
| 54 | Possession % | 57 |
| 1.72 | xG | 1.63 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Puebla | Metric | U.N.A.M. - Pumas |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.00 |
| 0.67 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.95 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.60 | Shots on target | 3.60 |
| 11.80 (better) | Total shots | 9.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.40 | Corners | 4.80 (better) |
| 46.4 (better) | Possession % | 42.6 |
| 394 (better) | Passes | 356 |
| Tackles | ||
| 7.20 (better) | Fouls | 9.00 |
| 3.00 | Offsides | 1.80 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.25 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.75 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Puebla wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- Puebla v U.N.A.M. - Pumas1–22026-10-31
- Puebla v U.N.A.M. - Pumas2–32026-02-14
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Puebla0–02025-08-24
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | +11 | 32 | Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | +15 | 30 | Club America won 1 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | +11 | 30 | Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | +14 | 27 | Toluca won 1 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 27 | Atlas won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | +3 | 25 | Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | +2 | 23 | Leon won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 22 | CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 22 | Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | +1 | 21 | Monterrey won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 21 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 20 | Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 19 | Puebla won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 19 | Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -8 | 15 | Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -10 | 14 | Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -11 | 13 | Necaxa won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -21 | 11 | FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5 |