Club America v 
Toluca
Match statistics
| Club America | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 411 | Passes | 365 |
| 54% | Possession % | 46% |
| 2.08 | xG | 1.94 |
- Over 1.5
- 87%
- Over 2.5
- 68%
- Over 3.5
- 46%
- Both score
- 68%
- Model pick
- Club America 47%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.95 – 1.56
Advised bets
Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Toluca +0.25
Why this price?
Back Toluca +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.25 with Bet365 — Toluca starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.06. The offered 2.25 implies only 44%, so the price is 9.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.87 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Club America 1.95, Toluca 1.56.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 31.9% | 3.14 | 2.80 BetVictor | 35.7% | -3.8 |
| Match result | Club America | 46.7% | 2.14 | 2.45 Betfair | 40.8% | +5.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.8% | 4.39 | 3.90 Betfair | 25.6% | -2.9 |
| Match result | Toluca | 30.6% | 3.27 | 2.88 Bet365 | 34.7% | -4.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 86.9% | 1.15 | 1.18 Betano | 84.7% | +2.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 13.1% | 7.65 | 6.00 Bet365 | 16.7% | -3.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | 1.55 Betano | 64.5% | +3.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 32.0% | 3.13 | 2.70 Bet365 | 37.0% | -5.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 46.5% | 2.15 | 2.32 Betano | 43.1% | +3.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | 1.65 Betano | 60.6% | -7.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 68.1% | 1.47 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | -0.8 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Club America favoured against Toluca
Our model makes Club America 47% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 23% and Toluca at 31%. The goal projection is 1.95 for Club America against 1.56 for Toluca — a clear edge to Club America on expected output. A combined 3.51 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 3-1 6%
This season
| Club America | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Played | 16 |
| 8-6-2 | W-D-L | 7-6-3 |
| 1.88 | Pts / game | 1.69 |
| 2.38 | Goals for / game | 2.19 |
| 1.44 | Goals against / game | 1.31 |
| 69% | Over 2.5 | 69% |
| 75% | BTTS | 69% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 31% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 6% |
| 3-4-1 | Home record | 4-2-2 |
| 5-2-1 | Away record | 3-4-1 |
| D3 | Streak | W1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Club America · Toluca
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.5 | Shots | 17.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.1 | Shots on target | 6.3 |
| 5.1 | Corners | 8.3 |
| 2.50 | Cards | 1.63 |
| 14.3 | Fouls | 13.4 |
| 54 | Possession % | 58 |
| 2.03 | xG | 1.34 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 14.3 | Shots | 14.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 3.13 | Cards | 2.38 |
| 13.8 | Fouls | 13.1 |
| 46 | Possession % | 42 |
| 1.31 | xG | 1.22 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Club America | Metric | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 (better) | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 1.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.20 |
| 1.95 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.99 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 8.00 (better) | Shots on target | 6.75 |
| 14.33 | Total shots | 24.50 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.33 | Corners | 11.00 (better) |
| 49.3 | Possession % | 63.0 (better) |
| 376 | Passes | 525 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 17.00 | Fouls | 14.25 (better) |
| 0.67 (better) | Offsides | 2.75 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.25 (better) |
| 0.50 | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Club America wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Toluca wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- Club America v Toluca2–22026-11-01
- Club America v Toluca2–12026-04-19
- Toluca v Club America2–02025-11-09
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | +11 | 32 | Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | +15 | 30 | Club America won 1 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | +11 | 30 | Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | +14 | 27 | Toluca won 1 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 27 | Atlas won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | +3 | 25 | Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | +2 | 23 | Leon won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 22 | CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 22 | Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | +1 | 21 | Monterrey won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 21 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 20 | Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 19 | Puebla won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 19 | Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -8 | 15 | Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -10 | 14 | Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -11 | 13 | Necaxa won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -21 | 11 | FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5 |