Predicted Edge

FC Juarez v Club Queretaro

FC Juarez won 2 of the last 518th3–1Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 512th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Juarez Club Queretaro
15Shots27
5Shots on target6
2Corners10
7Fouls14
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
1Offsides1
417Passes513
44%Possession %56%
1.46xG2.71
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
31%
Both score
56%
Model pick
Club Queretaro 47%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.63

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

FC Juarez -0.5

3.05Betano · fair 2.76 · qualifies at 2.84+ · 1.30u
Why this price?

Back FC Juarez -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 3.05 with Betano — FC Juarez must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 27% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 42%; we judge it at 36%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.76. The offered 3.05 implies only 33%, so the price is 10.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.30 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: FC Juarez 1.18, Club Queretaro 1.63.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultFC Juarez27.2%3.683.00 Bet36533.3%-6.2
Match resultDraw25.7%3.893.65 Betano27.4%-1.7
Match resultClub Queretaro47.1%2.122.30 Betano43.5%+3.7
Total goalsOver 1.577.7%1.291.29 Betano77.5%+0.1
Total goalsUnder 1.522.3%4.484.10 BetVictor24.4%-2.0
Total goalsOver 2.553.3%1.881.88 Betano53.2%+0.1
Total goalsUnder 2.546.7%2.142.10 Bet36547.6%-0.9
Total goalsOver 3.531.1%3.223.15 Betano31.7%-0.7
Total goalsUnder 3.568.9%1.451.38 Betano72.5%-3.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes56.3%1.771.70 Bet36558.8%-2.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No43.7%2.292.25 BetVictor44.4%-0.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Club Queretaro favoured against FC Juarez

Our model makes FC Juarez 27% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 26% and Club Queretaro at 47%. The goal projection is 1.18 for FC Juarez against 1.63 for Club Queretaro — a clear edge to Club Queretaro on expected output. A combined 2.81 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-2 9%
0-1 9%
0-2 8%
2-1 7%

This season

Season records for FC Juarez and Club Queretaro
FC Juarez Club Queretaro
16Played15
3-2-11W-D-L6-2-7
0.69Pts / game1.33
0.81Goals for / game1.20
2.13Goals against / game1.53
50%Over 2.553%
50%BTTS53%
13%Clean sheets27%
38%Failed to score27%
2-1-5Home record2-1-4
1-1-6Away record4-1-3
W2StreakL5

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Juarez · Club Queretaro

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.7Shots15.8
3.7Shots on target4.3
5.6Corners6.3
3.00Cards2.02
14.0Fouls10.5
49Possession %45
1.29xG1.65
7 matchessample8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.1Shots15.1
5.7Shots on target5.6
6.1Corners4.8
2.00Cards1.77
12.6Fouls9.9
51Possession %55
1.84xG1.80
7 matchessample8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC JuarezMetricClub Queretaro
0.80Goals scored1.20 (better)
1.80Goals conceded1.60 (better)
1.17Expected goals (xG)1.58 (better)
Big chances
3.40Shots on target3.80 (better)
10.00Total shots13.60 (better)
Touches in opp. box
6.20 (better)Corners4.60
49.6 (better)Possession %39.2
394 (better)Passes364
Tackles
14.40Fouls9.40 (better)
0.60 (better)Offsides1.40
Throw-ins
3.20Yellow cards1.80 (better)
0.33Red cards0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
FC Juarez wins
1
Draws
1
Club Queretaro wins
1
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
67%
Both score
100%
Liga MX table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Cruz Azul161024+1132Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5
2Club America16862+1530Club America won 1 of the last 5
3Guadalajara Chivas16862+1130Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5
4Toluca16763+1427Toluca won 1 of the last 5
5Atlas16835-327Atlas won 3 of the last 5
6Santos Laguna16817+325Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5
7Leon16655+223Leon won 1 of the last 5
8CF Pachuca16646+922CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5
9Club Tijuana16574+322Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5
10Monterrey15636+121Monterrey won 2 of the last 5
11U.N.A.M. - Pumas16565-221U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5
12Club Queretaro15627-520Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 5
13Puebla16547-419Puebla won 1 of the last 5
14Atletico San Luis16547-519Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5
15Tigres UANL16367-815Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5
16Atlante FC16358-1014Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5
17Necaxa16349-1113Necaxa won 1 of the last 5
18FC Juarez163211-2111FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5