Predicted Edge

Santos Laguna v Necaxa

Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 56th1–0Necaxa won 1 of the last 517th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Santos Laguna Necaxa
6Shots21
3Shots on target8
12Corners6
11Fouls16
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
0Offsides1
404Passes417
38%Possession %62%
0.77xG2.53
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
37%
Both score
60%
Model pick
Santos Laguna 51%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.24

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Santos Laguna -0.5

1.82Betano · fair 1.64 · qualifies at 1.69+ · 2.00u
Why this price?

Back Santos Laguna -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.82 with Betano — Santos Laguna must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 51% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 67%; we judge it at 61%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.64. The offered 1.82 implies only 55%, so the price is 11.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Santos Laguna 1.86, Necaxa 1.24.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Total goalsUnder 3.562.6%1.601.70 Betano58.8%+3.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes60.5%1.651.50 Bet36566.7%-6.2
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No39.5%2.532.70 BetVictor37.0%+2.5
Match resultSantos Laguna51.2%1.951.89 Dafabet52.9%-1.7
Match resultDraw23.7%4.214.25 Betano23.5%+0.2
Match resultNecaxa25.0%4.004.05 Betano24.7%+0.3
Total goalsOver 1.582.0%1.221.16 Betano86.2%-4.2
Total goalsUnder 1.518.0%5.566.00 BetVictor16.7%+1.3
Total goalsOver 2.559.8%1.671.52 Betano65.8%-6.0
Total goalsUnder 2.540.2%2.492.70 Betfair37.0%+3.2
Total goalsOver 3.537.4%2.672.22 Betano45.0%-7.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Santos Laguna favoured against Necaxa

Our model makes Santos Laguna 51% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 24% and Necaxa at 25%. The goal projection is 1.86 for Santos Laguna against 1.24 for Necaxa — a substantial edge to Santos Laguna on expected output. A combined 3.10 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 10%
1-0 8%
2-0 8%
1-2 6%

This season

Season records for Santos Laguna and Necaxa
Santos Laguna Necaxa
16Played16
8-1-7W-D-L3-4-9
1.56Pts / game0.81
1.44Goals for / game1.06
1.25Goals against / game1.75
50%Over 2.550%
38%BTTS69%
38%Clean sheets6%
31%Failed to score25%
5-1-2Home record3-1-5
3-0-5Away record0-3-4
W2StreakW1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Santos Laguna · Necaxa

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.6Shots16.4
4.9Shots on target5.7
6.6Corners5.6
2.00Cards2.14
11.8Fouls13.6
55Possession %48
1.76xG2.02
8 matchessample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.8Shots15.9
4.4Shots on target4.9
4.1Corners6.9
2.13Cards1.86
11.8Fouls10.4
45Possession %52
1.67xG1.41
8 matchessample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Santos LagunaMetricNecaxa
2.60 (better)Goals scored1.20
0.60 (better)Goals conceded2.20
2.58 (better)Expected goals (xG)2.14
Big chances
6.00 (better)Shots on target5.40
15.80 (better)Total shots15.60
Touches in opp. box
6.20 (better)Corners5.60
55.2 (better)Possession %46.0
501 (better)Passes393
Tackles
13.00 (better)Fouls14.40
2.00Offsides1.40 (better)
Throw-ins
1.80 (better)Yellow cards2.20
0.00Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Santos Laguna wins
1
Draws
0
Necaxa wins
2
Goals / game
3.33
Over 2.5
67%
Both score
67%
Liga MX table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Cruz Azul161024+1132Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5
2Club America16862+1530Club America won 1 of the last 5
3Guadalajara Chivas16862+1130Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5
4Toluca16763+1427Toluca won 1 of the last 5
5Atlas16835-327Atlas won 3 of the last 5
6Santos Laguna16817+325Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5
7Leon16655+223Leon won 1 of the last 5
8CF Pachuca16646+922CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5
9Club Tijuana16574+322Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5
10Monterrey15636+121Monterrey won 2 of the last 5
11U.N.A.M. - Pumas16565-221U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5
12Club Queretaro15627-520Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 5
13Puebla16547-419Puebla won 1 of the last 5
14Atletico San Luis16547-519Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5
15Tigres UANL16367-815Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5
16Atlante FC16358-1014Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5
17Necaxa16349-1113Necaxa won 1 of the last 5
18FC Juarez163211-2111FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5