Predicted Edge

Atletico San Luis v Atlas

Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 514th0–1Atlas won 3 of the last 55th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Atletico San Luis Atlas
22Shots8
4Shots on target1
7Corners4
7Fouls23
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
3Offsides0
450Passes358
56%Possession %44%
1.05xG0.78
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
60%
Model pick
Atletico San Luis 43%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.37

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Atlas +0.25

2.20Bet365 · fair 1.97 · qualifies at 2.03+ · 2.00u
Why this price?

Back Atlas +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.20 with Bet365 — Atlas starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 51% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 51%; we judge it at 51%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.97. The offered 2.20 implies only 45%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Atletico San Luis 1.61, Atlas 1.37.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultAtletico San Luis42.5%2.352.67 Betano37.5%+5.1
Match resultDraw25.3%3.953.70 Bet36527.0%-1.7
Match resultAtlas32.1%3.112.57 Betano38.9%-6.8
Total goalsOver 1.580.4%1.241.22 Betano82.0%-1.6
Total goalsUnder 1.519.6%5.094.60 BetVictor21.7%-2.1
Total goalsOver 2.557.3%1.751.78 Betano56.2%+1.1
Total goalsUnder 2.542.7%2.342.30 Betfair43.5%-0.7
Total goalsOver 3.534.9%2.872.90 Betano34.5%+0.4
Total goalsUnder 3.565.1%1.531.52 Betano65.8%-0.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes60.3%1.661.57 Bet36563.7%-3.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No39.7%2.522.55 Betfair39.2%+0.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Atletico San Luis favoured against Atlas

Our model makes Atletico San Luis 43% to win this Liga MX fixture, with the draw at 25% and Atlas at 32%. The goal projection is 1.61 for Atletico San Luis against 1.37 for Atlas — a slight edge to Atletico San Luis on expected output. A combined 2.98 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
1-0 8%
2-0 7%

This season

Season records for Atletico San Luis and Atlas
Atletico San Luis Atlas
16Played16
5-4-7W-D-L8-3-5
1.19Pts / game1.69
1.19Goals for / game1.69
1.50Goals against / game1.88
56%Over 2.550%
56%BTTS69%
13%Clean sheets25%
38%Failed to score6%
2-2-5Home record2-3-4
3-2-2Away record6-0-1
L2StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Atletico San Luis · Atlas

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.7Shots14.4
4.4Shots on target4.7
4.6Corners7.3
0.86Cards2.29
8.8Fouls13.1
53Possession %55
0.82xG1.64
7 matchessample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.9Shots15.0
4.7Shots on target5.0
6.4Corners6.0
1.71Cards1.71
16.0Fouls13.1
47Possession %45
1.34xG1.75
7 matchessample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Atletico San LuisMetricAtlas
2.00 (better)Goals scored1.80
1.40 (better)Goals conceded1.80
1.52Expected goals (xG)2.04 (better)
Big chances
4.80Shots on target5.00 (better)
13.20Total shots17.20 (better)
Touches in opp. box
3.40Corners8.20 (better)
49.0Possession %54.8 (better)
462 (better)Passes446
Tackles
9.60 (better)Fouls11.00
2.00Offsides1.40 (better)
Throw-ins
0.75 (better)Yellow cards2.00
0.00 (better)Red cards0.20

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Atletico San Luis wins
1
Draws
0
Atlas wins
2
Goals / game
2.67
Over 2.5
33%
Both score
33%
Liga MX table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Cruz Azul161024+1132Cruz Azul won 5 of the last 5
2Club America16862+1530Club America won 1 of the last 5
3Guadalajara Chivas16862+1130Guadalajara Chivas won 3 of the last 5
4Toluca16763+1427Toluca won 1 of the last 5
5Atlas16835-327Atlas won 3 of the last 5
6Santos Laguna16817+325Santos Laguna won 4 of the last 5
7Leon16655+223Leon won 1 of the last 5
8CF Pachuca16646+922CF Pachuca won 3 of the last 5
9Club Tijuana16574+322Club Tijuana won 1 of the last 5
10Monterrey15636+121Monterrey won 2 of the last 5
11U.N.A.M. - Pumas16565-221U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 of the last 5
12Club Queretaro15627-520Club Queretaro won 0 of the last 5
13Puebla16547-419Puebla won 1 of the last 5
14Atletico San Luis16547-519Atletico San Luis won 2 of the last 5
15Tigres UANL16367-815Tigres UANL won 0 of the last 5
16Atlante FC16358-1014Atlante FC won 1 of the last 5
17Necaxa16349-1113Necaxa won 1 of the last 5
18FC Juarez163211-2111FC Juarez won 2 of the last 5