Süper Lig · Review

Süper Lig matchweek 10 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Süper Lig result from matchweek 10 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 2 Nov 2026, updated 3 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Süper Lig, matchweek 10 (30 October – 2 November 2026), is complete: nine matches, 35 goals (3.89 a game), four home wins, two draws and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in seven of the nine and both teams scored in five.

The result the model rated least likely was Göztepe's win in Fenerbahçe v Göztepe (1–2), which it had at 16%; the one it rated most likely was Amed's win in Amed v Eyüpspor (5–1), at 78%.

After the round, Galatasaray lead on 25 points, two points clear of Amed, with Trabzonspor third on 22. The bottom three are Gaziantep FK (8), Samsunspor (4), Eyüpspor (3).

Match by match

Konyaspor 0–4 GalatasarayFri 30 Oct, 17:00

Before kick-off the model had Konyaspor 24%, the draw 25% and Galatasaray 51%, so Galatasaray winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.31–2.66: Galatasaray created the better chances. The headline call, Galatasaray to win at 51%, came in. Pick published: Konyaspor -0.25 at 3.90 — lost.

Erzurumspor FK 1–3 Çorum FKSat 31 Oct, 10:30

Before kick-off the model had Erzurumspor FK 28%, the draw 25% and Çorum FK 47%, so Çorum FK winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.73–1.18: Çorum FK created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, came in.

Kocaelispor 0–0 RizesporSat 31 Oct, 13:00

Before kick-off the model had Kocaelispor 41%, the draw 30% and Rizespor 29%, with Kocaelispor favoured; it put the draw at 30%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.59–1.24: Rizespor created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 61%, came in.

Fenerbahçe 1–2 GöztepeSat 31 Oct, 16:00

Before kick-off the model had Fenerbahçe 65%, the draw 19% and Göztepe 16%, with Fenerbahçe favoured; it put Göztepe winning at 16%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.66–1.20: Fenerbahçe created the better chances. The headline call, Fenerbahçe to win at 65%, did not come in.

Amed 5–1 EyüpsporSun 1 Nov, 10:30

Before kick-off the model had Amed 78%, the draw 14% and Eyüpspor 8%, so Amed winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 4.95–0.98: Amed created the better chances. The headline call, Amed to win at 78%, came in.

Başakşehir 5–2 SamsunsporSun 1 Nov, 13:00

Before kick-off the model had Başakşehir 59%, the draw 22% and Samsunspor 19%, so Başakşehir winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.93–1.04: Başakşehir created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 60%, came in.

Trabzonspor 2–0 Gaziantep FKSun 1 Nov, 13:00

Before kick-off the model had Trabzonspor 69%, the draw 18% and Gaziantep FK 13%, so Trabzonspor winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 2-0, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.96–0.62: Trabzonspor created the better chances. The headline call, Trabzonspor to win at 69%, came in. Pick published: Trabzonspor -0.5 at 1.42 — won.

Kasımpaşa 2–2 BeşiktaşSun 1 Nov, 16:00

Before kick-off the model had Kasımpaşa 27%, the draw 26% and Beşiktaş 47%, with Beşiktaş favoured; it put the draw at 26%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.20–1.28: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Beşiktaş to win at 47%, did not come in.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 5–0 AlanyasporMon 2 Nov, 17:00

Before kick-off the model had Gençlerbirliği S.K. 34%, the draw 29% and Alanyaspor 37%, with Alanyaspor favoured; it put Gençlerbirliği S.K. winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.91–0.50: Gençlerbirliği S.K. created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 57%, did not come in. Pick published: Gençlerbirliği S.K. -0.25 at 2.30 — won.

The numbers this season

Süper Lig has averaged 3.00 goals a game over 90 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 60% of them and both sides scoring in 47%. Home sides have won 48% of matches, 18% have been drawn and away sides have won 34%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.