Konyaspor v Galatasaray

15th0–41st

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Konyaspor		Galatasaray
9	Shots	16
1	Shots on target	8
3	Corners	9
12	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
2	Offsides	2
384	Passes	462
46%	Possession %	54%
1.31	xG	2.66

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Galatasaray 51%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.12 – 1.72

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Konyaspor -0.25

3.90Marathonbet · fair 3.72 · qualifies at 3.83+ · 0.43u

Why this price?

Back Konyaspor -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 3.90 with Marathonbet — Konyaspor must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 28% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 26%; we judge it at 27%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.72. The offered 3.90 implies only 26%, so the price is 5.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.43 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Konyaspor 1.12, Galatasaray 1.72.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Konyaspor	24.2%	4.13	5.80 Betano	17.2%	+7.0
Match result	Draw	24.9%	4.01	4.40 Betano	22.7%	+2.2
Match result	Galatasaray	50.8%	1.97	1.68 Dafabet	59.5%	-8.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.2%	1.28	1.22 Bet365	82.0%	-3.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.8%	4.58	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	+1.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.0%	1.85	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-4.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.0%	2.18	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+3.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.7%	3.15	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	-4.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.3%	1.47	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+3.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.9%	1.79	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-1.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.1%	2.27	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+0.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Galatasaray favoured against Konyaspor

Our model makes Konyaspor 24% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 25% and Galatasaray at 51%. The goal projection is 1.12 for Konyaspor against 1.72 for Galatasaray — a substantial edge to Galatasaray on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 10%; 0-1 9%; 0-2 9%; 0-0 6%

This season

Season records for Konyaspor and Galatasaray
Konyaspor		Galatasaray
11	Played	11
2-2-7	W-D-L	9-1-1
0.73	Pts / game	2.55
0.55	Goals for / game	2.45
1.27	Goals against / game	1.36
27%	Over 2.5	82%
18%	BTTS	55%
36%	Clean sheets	36%
64%	Failed to score	9%
2-1-3	Home record	5-1-0
0-1-4	Away record	4-0-1
L2	Streak	W5

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Konyaspor · Galatasaray

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.0	Shots	19.8
2.6	Shots on target	7.4
4.0	Corners	8.0
2.00	Cards	2.20
11.0	Fouls	10.2
51	Possession %	61
0.93	xG	2.12
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.8	Shots	11.0
3.4	Shots on target	3.6
5.2	Corners	4.6
2.00	Cards	2.80
14.0	Fouls	13.6
49	Possession %	39
1.45	xG	0.91
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Konyaspor	Metric	Galatasaray
0.60	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
0.72	Expected goals (xG)	1.63 (better)
	Big chances
3.25	Shots on target	5.50 (better)
8.75	Total shots	14.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	5.50 (better)
46.3	Possession %	51.3 (better)
373	Passes	412 (better)
	Tackles
12.50	Fouls	11.00 (better)
3.25	Offsides	3.25
	Throw-ins
3.33	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Konyaspor wins: 1
Draws: 0
Galatasaray wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Konyaspor v Galatasaray0–42026-10-30
Konyaspor v Galatasaray2–02026-02-21
Galatasaray v Konyaspor3–12025-09-22

Süper Lig table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	+12	28	Galatasaray won 5 of the last 5
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	+18	25	Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 5
3	Amed	11	7	2	2	+13	23	Amed won 3 of the last 5
4	Beşiktaş	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5
5	Kasımpaşa	11	5	5	1	+6	20	Kasımpaşa won 3 of the last 5
6	Fenerbahçe	11	6	1	4	+19	19	Fenerbahçe won 3 of the last 5
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	+4	19	Kocaelispor won 2 of the last 5
8	Başakşehir	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Başakşehir won 3 of the last 5
9	Çorum FK	11	5	1	5	0	16	Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5
10	Göztepe	11	4	3	4	+3	15	Göztepe won 4 of the last 5
11	Rizespor	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Rizespor won 1 of the last 5
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	-7	14	Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Alanyaspor won 0 of the last 5
14	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Konyaspor won 1 of the last 5
16	Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	-10	8	Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 5
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	-15	7	Samsunspor won 1 of the last 5
18	Eyüpspor	11	1	0	10	-27	3	Eyüpspor won 0 of the last 5