Kasımpaşa v Beşiktaş

5th2–24th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Kasımpaşa		Beşiktaş
16	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	4
5	Corners	2
20	Fouls	15
1	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
—	Offsides	—
350	Passes	503
42%	Possession %	58%
1.20	xG	1.28

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Beşiktaş 47%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.13 – 1.58

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Kasımpaşa	26.7%	3.74	5.60 Betano	17.9%	+8.8
Match result	Draw	26.2%	3.82	4.55 Betano	22.0%	+4.2
Match result	Beşiktaş	47.1%	2.12	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-14.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.0%	1.32	1.20 Betano	83.3%	-7.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.0%	4.16	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	+4.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.0%	1.96	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-8.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	49.0%	2.04	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+8.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.9%	3.46	2.85 Betano	35.1%	-6.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.1%	1.41	1.57 Betano	63.7%	+7.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.4%	1.84	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-1.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.6%	2.19	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+0.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Beşiktaş favoured against Kasımpaşa

Our model makes Kasımpaşa 27% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 26% and Beşiktaş at 47%. The goal projection is 1.13 for Kasımpaşa against 1.58 for Beşiktaş — a clear edge to Beşiktaş on expected output. A combined 2.71 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 8%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş
Kasımpaşa		Beşiktaş
11	Played	11
5-5-1	W-D-L	7-1-3
1.82	Pts / game	2.00
1.55	Goals for / game	2.09
1.00	Goals against / game	1.09
45%	Over 2.5	64%
64%	BTTS	45%
36%	Clean sheets	36%
9%	Failed to score	18%
1-4-0	Home record	6-0-0
4-1-1	Away record	1-1-3
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kasımpaşa · Beşiktaş

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.8	Shots	16.8
5.4	Shots on target	6.8
4.4	Corners	5.2
2.00	Cards	2.50
16.8	Fouls	12.2
43	Possession %	64
1.37	xG	2.12
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.6	Shots	10.3
5.4	Shots on target	5.5
5.8	Corners	3.3
2.20	Cards	4.00
13.8	Fouls	16.8
57	Possession %	36
1.22	xG	1.19
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kasımpaşa	Metric	Beşiktaş
1.60	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.02	Expected goals (xG)	1.94 (better)
	Big chances
4.50	Shots on target	5.60 (better)
14.00	Total shots	16.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.25 (better)	Corners	5.20
45.5	Possession %	59.0 (better)
358	Passes	499 (better)
	Tackles
16.50	Fouls	10.80 (better)
1.75 (better)	Offsides	2.25
	Throw-ins
2.50 (better)	Yellow cards	2.60
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Kasımpaşa wins: 0
Draws: 2
Beşiktaş wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 100%

Süper Lig table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	+12	28	Galatasaray won 5 of the last 5
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	+18	25	Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 5
3	Amed	11	7	2	2	+13	23	Amed won 3 of the last 5
4	Beşiktaş	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5
5	Kasımpaşa	11	5	5	1	+6	20	Kasımpaşa won 3 of the last 5
6	Fenerbahçe	11	6	1	4	+19	19	Fenerbahçe won 3 of the last 5
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	+4	19	Kocaelispor won 2 of the last 5
8	Başakşehir	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Başakşehir won 3 of the last 5
9	Çorum FK	11	5	1	5	0	16	Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5
10	Göztepe	11	4	3	4	+3	15	Göztepe won 4 of the last 5
11	Rizespor	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Rizespor won 1 of the last 5
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	-7	14	Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Alanyaspor won 0 of the last 5
14	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Konyaspor won 1 of the last 5
16	Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	-10	8	Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 5
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	-15	7	Samsunspor won 1 of the last 5
18	Eyüpspor	11	1	0	10	-27	3	Eyüpspor won 0 of the last 5